370
FXCN31 CWHX 190000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.35 PM ADT
SUNDAY 18 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 N AND
LONGITUDE 62.3 W, ABOUT 388 NAUTICAL MILES OR 719 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
(120 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS (19 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 18 9.00 PM 37.7N 62.3W 978 65 120
AUG 19 9.00 AM 41.6N 59.0W 979 70 130
AUG 19 9.00 PM 44.9N 53.9W 981 60 111
AUG 20 9.00 AM 47.7N 46.8W 984 55 102
AUG 20 9.00 PM 49.6N 38.2W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
WIND AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. BANDED PRECIPITATION IS ALSO QUITE ORGANIZED
EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY ALMOST 500 KM. INTENSITY IS NOW
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE ERNESTO IS A LITTLE STRONGER.
FORWARD MOTION IS HOLDING STEADY AT NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 25 DEGREES CELCIUS FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND IN AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO THE CHANCE THAT ERNESTO
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS IT ENTERS CANADIAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL THEN START
ACCELERATING ERNESTO TO THE NORTHEAST, TOWARD LESS FAVOURABLE SSTS AND
SHEAR CONDITIONS. A QUICK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT
THIS POINT IN THE STORM’S EVOLUTION, BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE OF CAPE
RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
19/00Z 180 185 110 130 80 90 70 70 70 50 10 30
19/12Z 165 190 130 105 80 95 70 55 25 40 20 0
20/00Z 150 200 160 85 85 95 60 40 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 145 210 175 70 85 95 50 35 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 140 215 180 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/TIRONE/MARCH/WHITE
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