495  
FXCN31 CWHX 190600  
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE  
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.36 AM ADT  
MONDAY 19 AUGUST 2024.  
 
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT  
 
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION  
 
AT 3.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 N AND  
LONGITUDE 61.1 W, ABOUT 276 NAUTICAL MILES OR 512 KM SOUTH OF SABLE  
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS (139 KM/H)  
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT  
23 KNOTS (43 KM/H).  
 
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH  
 
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND  
ADT MB KTS KMH  
AUG 19 3.00 AM 39.4N 61.1W 975 75 139  
AUG 19 3.00 PM 43.8N 56.9W 978 70 130  
AUG 20 3.00 AM 46.8N 50.8W 983 60 111  
AUG 20 3.00 PM 48.7N 42.6W 990 50 93  
AUG 21 3.00 AM 49.9N 31.9W 995 40 74  
 
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION  
 
A. ANALYSIS  
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO IS EXHIBITING A VERY LARGE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY  
TONIGHT, WITH VERY GOOD OUTFLOW IN MOST QUADRANTS AND A WELL  
PRONOUNCED CDO TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. ITS CURRENT  
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS INCREASED IN  
FORWARD SPEED SINCE LAST EVENING, AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE  
NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS.  
 
B. PROGNOSTIC  
 
THE HURRICANE IS RUNNING OUT OF ROOM AND TIME FOR FURTHER  
INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE  
GULF STREAM, AS WELL AS SOON ENCOUNTERING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
THE COMBINED LOWERING OF THE SSTS AND INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR WILL  
INDUCE THE PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOMETIME TODAY. BASED  
ON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS THE TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. ERNESTO  
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE IT MOVES  
EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS.  
 
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)  
 
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE  
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW  
19/06Z 175 190 120 120 80 95 70 65 50 45 15 15  
19/18Z 160 195 145 95 85 95 65 50 25 40 20 0  
20/06Z 150 205 170 80 85 95 55 40 0 0 0 0  
20/18Z 145 215 180 70 85 95 50 35 0 0 0 0  
21/06Z 145 215 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
 
END/MARCH/WHITE  
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