578
FXCN31 CWHX 191200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.18 AM ADT
MONDAY 19 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 N AND
LONGITUDE 59.7 W, ABOUT 182 NAUTICAL MILES OR 338 KM SOUTH OF SABLE
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS (139 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 977 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21
KNOTS (39 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 19 9.00 AM 40.9N 59.7W 977 75 139
AUG 19 9.00 PM 45.4N 53.9W 981 65 120
AUG 20 9.00 AM 47.9N 46.8W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.00 PM 49.5N 37.3W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS IRREGULARLY SHAPED EARLIER THIS
MORNING, BUT AFTER A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE
EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME WELL DEFINED AND SMALLER THAN IT WAS
OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE LOOKS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS
MORNING OF ABOUT 75 KNOTS. ERNESTO IS STILL MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN
SLOPE WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE COLDER WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM AND THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
WILL INDUCE THE PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOMETIME TODAY.
BASED ON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS THE TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA.
ERNESTO WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE IT
MOVES EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
19/12Z 170 195 135 110 85 95 70 60 40 45 20 10
20/00Z 155 200 160 90 85 95 60 45 25 40 20 0
20/12Z 150 210 175 75 85 95 55 40 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 145 215 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/COPP/CLEMENTS/MARCH/WHITE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page