775
FXCN31 CWHX 191722 AAA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.22 PM ADT
MONDAY 19 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
FIXING TROPICAL STORM NODES TO POST-TROPICAL
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.4 N AND
LONGITUDE 57.2 W, ABOUT 126 NAUTICAL MILES OR 233 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS (139
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
27 KNOTS (50 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 19 3.00 PM 43.4N 57.2W 970 75 139
AUG 19 9.00 PM 45.4N 54.0W 976 65 120
AUG 20 3.00 AM 46.8N 50.8W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.00 AM 47.9N 46.8W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 3.00 PM 48.7N 42.6W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.00 PM 49.5N 37.3W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 21 3.00 AM 49.9N 31.9W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
ALTHOUGH THE CLDN IS NOW PICKING UP SIGNALS OF LIGHTNING IN HURRICANE
ERNESTO, DEEP CONVECTION IN THE STORM IS ALMOST ENTIRELY CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AT THIS TIME, INDICATING THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR
HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN
WRAPPING INTO ERNESTO FROM THE WEST ON WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. THE EYE
HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ERNESTO APPEARS
TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY OVER SST’S
AROUND 22 TO 23 C. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION, INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS AND INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 27 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS, AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
19/18Z 160 195 145 95 85 95 65 50 25 40 20 0
20/00Z 155 200 160 90 70 95 60 30 25 40 20 0
20/06Z 150 205 170 80 60 95 55 10 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 150 210 175 75 55 95 55 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 145 215 180 70 45 95 50 0 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 145 215 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 145 215 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/CLEMENTS/COPP
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