431
WOCN31 CWHX 192346
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR EASTERN CANADA
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:46 P.M. ADT MONDAY 19 AUGUST 2024.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
BONAVISTA PENINSULA
BURIN PENINSULA
SABLE
EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE
BANQUEREAU
LAURENTIAN FAN
SOUTHWEST COAST
SOUTH COAST
EAST COAST
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS
SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS
SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
GEORGES BANK
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE.
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==DISCUSSION==
FOR HURRICANE ERNESTO.
AN INTERMEDIATE UPDATE WILL BE PROVIDED BY 12:30 A.M. NDT. THE NEXT
FULL INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:30 A.M. NDT.
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AVALON PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING. THE CANADIAN IMPACTS
EXPECTED ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERNMOST NEWFOUNDLAND. LARGE WAVES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
THERE THIS EVENING.
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:30 P.M. NDT.
LOCATION: NEAR 45.2 NORTH 54.3 WEST.
ABOUT 190 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 140 KM/H.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 52 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 MILLIBARS.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SURF CONDITIONS WITH A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE PROVINCE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM
AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. IT WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH, HOWEVER, TO BRING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO PORTIONS OF THE AVALON, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE BONAVISTA AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THERE WILL BE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES GIVING A RISK OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE
SOUTHERN AVALON AND PLACENTIA BAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR DAMAGE
TO DOCKS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES.
DETAILS:
A. WIND.
THIS EVENING, ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING MODERATE WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH
OF THE STORM TRACK ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE ISLAND. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH FORECAST UPDATES IN CASE THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 KM/H ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON THIS EVENING.
B. RAINFALL.
AS ERNESTO PASSES SOUTH OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA, A SHORT PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT A 3 HOUR WINDOW, WHEN HOURLY
RATES OF 20 TO 25 MM/H ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 60 TO
80 MM LOCALLY UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AVALON.
AMOUNTS MAY REACH 60 MM IN THE VICINITY OF ST. JOHN'S. RAINFALL
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
LARGE WAVES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA, AND
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. THESE BREAKING WAVES COULD BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTHWEST-FACING
SHORELINES FROM BURIN EAST TO AVALON REGIONS, PARTICULARLY DURING
HIGH TIDES LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM, LONG-PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS SURF AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS, AND
BEACHGOERS AND SIGHTSEERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
EVENING.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CANADIAN
OFFSHORE WATERS OF LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS
FOR TONIGHT. THESE AREAS COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF
10 TO 14 METRES JUST SOUTH OF ERNESTO'S TRACK. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
LOCAL MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS ON WINDS AND EXPECTED WAVE
CONDITIONS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
FORECASTERS: CLEMENTS/COPP/HATT
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA
END/ASPC
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