184
FXCN31 CWHX 200000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.06 PM NDT
MONDAY 19 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.2 N AND
LONGITUDE 54.3 W, ABOUT 101 NAUTICAL MILES OR 188 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS (139
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 28 KNOTS (52 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 19 9.30 PM 45.2N 54.3W 972 75 139
AUG 20 3.30 AM 46.8N 50.8W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.30 AM 47.9N 46.8W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 3.30 PM 48.7N 42.6W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.30 PM 49.5N 37.3W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE ERNESTO HAS MAINTAINED IT'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 30 KNOTS. AS THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN, DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WRAPPING AROUND ERNESTO FROM THE WEST ON WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. ERNESTO
IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SST'S NEAR 20 C.
B. PROGNOSTIC
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS, AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM TUESDAY MORNING AS IT PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/00Z 155 200 160 90 70 95 60 30 25 65 30 0
20/06Z 150 205 170 80 60 95 55 10 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 150 210 175 75 55 95 55 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 145 215 180 70 45 95 50 0 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 145 215 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT/CLEMENTS/COPP
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