680
FXCN31 CWHX 200600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.36 AM NDT
TUESDAY 20 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.8 N AND
LONGITUDE 50.8 W, ABOUT 94 NAUTICAL MILES OR 174 KM EAST OF CAPE RACE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H) AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30
KNOTS (56 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.30 AM 46.8N 50.8W 979 65 120
AUG 20 9.30 AM 47.9N 46.8W 984 60 111
AUG 20 3.30 PM 48.7N 42.6W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.30 PM 49.5N 37.3W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
A SAR PASS AT 21:46 UTC SHOWED A SWATH OF 70 TO 80 KNOT WINDS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE. AT 21 UTC, THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ERNESTO WAS RAISED TO 80 KNOTS. HOWEVER, SINCE
THEN, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN DEGRADING DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR AND TRACKING OVER 16 DEG C WATER. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS FOR THIS UPDATE. THE HOLYROOD RADAR SHOWS A
TROPICAL RAIN BANDING PATTERN IN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT MOVED IN LAST
EVENING. THIS IS INDICATIVE THAT ERNESTO REMAINS A VERY TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS MARINE
AREA AT APPROXIMATELY 12 UTC. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STATUS UNTIL LATER TODAY DUE TO ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE AND RECENT PHASE
SPACE FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SSTS WILL BE 14 TO 17 DEG C
ALONG THE TRACK TODAY WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/06Z 170 200 170 80 60 100 50 0 30 50 20 0
20/12Z 150 200 180 80 60 100 50 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 140 200 180 70 50 100 50 0 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 140 200 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT
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