807
FXCN31 CWHX 251200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.05 AM NDT
MONDAY 25 AUGUST 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 AM NDT, TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2
N AND LONGITUDE 58.5 W, ABOUT 328 NAUTICAL MILES OR 608 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. FERNAND IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS (19 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 25 9.30 AM 34.2N 58.5W 1007 45 83
AUG 25 9.30 PM 36.6N 56.8W 1008 50 93
AUG 26 9.30 AM 39.0N 54.6W 1009 45 83
AUG 26 9.30 PM 42.8N 50.5W 1011 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 27 9.30 AM 47.7N 45.0W 1012 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW FERNAND'S CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, WITH A FEW ISOLATED BANDS TO TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME SEPARATION FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENCY, WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007
MB. MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FERNAND WILL REMAIN OVER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
MOST OF TODAY, BUT THEREAFTER INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SST'S SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSISTION. LATEST GUIDANCE WILL HAVE FERNAND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS AS A POST-TROPICAL STORM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THERAFTER IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO AN EXISTING SYNOPTIC LEVEL TROUGH.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
25/12Z 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 75 75 10 10 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/12Z 70 70 30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/00Z 60 65 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/12Z 60 120 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/BORGEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page