479
FXCN31 CWHX 301200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.22 AM NDT
THURSDAY 30 OCTOBER 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 N AND
LONGITUDE 72.5 W, ABOUT 526 NAUTICAL MILES OR 975 KM SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS (167 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB. MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19
KNOTS (35 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
OCT 30 9.30 AM 26.8N 72.5W 968 90 167
OCT 30 9.30 PM 31.7N 68.1W 968 95 176
OCT 31 9.30 AM 37.5N 62.4W 969 85 157
OCT 31 9.30 PM 43.9N 55.7W 969 70 130
NOV 01 9.30 AM 49.3N 49.1W 966 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 PM 52.8N 43.3W 963 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 8.30 AM 54.4N 37.8W 955 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 8.30 PM 55.2N 32.0W 958 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 8.30 AM 56.3N 27.2W 961 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 8.30 PM 57.8N 23.5W 967 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE MELISSA HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND IS INCREASING
IN FOWARD SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BASED OFF THE OVERNIGHT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT GUIDANCE, THE
STORM APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY WITH SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS
OF -85C. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM
ALSO INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
MELISSA IS BEGINNING TO BE STEERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STORM SHOULD EXPERIENE AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE MELISSA
REMAINS OVER WARM SST AND WEAK SHEAR, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE MELISSA ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND COLDER
SSTS. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
30/12Z 170 170 100 130 80 90 50 50 45 50 35 30
31/00Z 175 190 145 120 90 105 65 55 45 55 35 30
31/12Z 190 215 195 130 95 110 75 45 35 60 35 15
01/00Z 205 240 225 145 95 110 80 30 15 55 25 0
01/12Z 210 260 235 150 80 100 70 10 0 50 20 0
02/00Z 195 260 245 165 55 75 60 0 0 0 0 0
02/12Z 160 240 240 175 40 60 60 0 0 0 0 0
03/00Z 115 220 220 160 40 60 60 0 0 0 0 0
03/12Z 70 205 195 115 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
04/00Z 25 190 165 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/MCARTHUR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page