499
FXCN31 CWHX 310000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.27 PM NDT
THURSDAY 30 OCTOBER 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 N AND
LONGITUDE 68.9 W, ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES OR 417 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS (167 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
KNOTS (56 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
OCT 30 9.30 PM 31.3N 68.9W 970 90 167
OCT 31 3.30 AM 34.7N 65.5W 967 85 157
OCT 31 9.30 AM 37.5N 62.5W 967 80 148
OCT 31 3.30 PM 40.7N 59.2W 967 75 139
OCT 31 9.30 PM 43.8N 55.8W 967 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 AM 46.6N 52.6W 962 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 AM 49.5N 48.9W 964 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 PM 51.1N 46.5W 959 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 PM 53.3N 43.1W 955 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 2.30 AM 54.0N 40.5W 955 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE MELISSA IS NOW LOCATED 225 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NOTHEAST. BASED OFF THE LATEST
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE STORM IS STARTING TO EXPERIENCE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. A RECENT NOAA RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
SHOWS THAT SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN WINDS ALOFT.
B. PROGNOSTIC
MELISSA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR
AND COLDER SSTS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
31/00Z 180 220 150 140 90 110 60 50 50 70 35 30
31/06Z 185 230 170 140 95 110 70 50 40 60 35 25
31/12Z 200 240 210 140 95 110 80 40 40 70 35 0
31/18Z 200 260 230 145 95 110 80 40 25 60 30 0
01/00Z 195 270 195 140 100 110 80 0 0 70 25 0
01/06Z 190 305 225 130 90 110 80 0 0 55 20 0
01/12Z 220 350 270 140 90 110 80 0 0 40 0 0
01/18Z 210 350 260 160 70 90 65 0 0 0 0 0
02/00Z 210 340 250 160 60 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
02/06Z 180 320 250 170 50 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
END/MCARTHUR/WHITE
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