007
FXCN31 CWHX 310600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.18 AM NDT
FRIDAY 31 OCTOBER 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 N AND
LONGITUDE 65.5 W, ABOUT 146 NAUTICAL MILES OR 270 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS (157
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 971 MB. MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
37 KNOTS (69 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
OCT 31 3.30 AM 34.7N 65.5W 971 85 157
OCT 31 9.30 AM 37.5N 62.5W 967 80 148
OCT 31 3.30 PM 40.7N 59.2W 967 75 139
OCT 31 9.30 PM 43.8N 55.8W 967 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 AM 46.6N 52.6W 964 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 AM 49.5N 48.9W 964 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 PM 51.1N 46.5W 959 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 PM 53.3N 43.1W 955 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 2.30 AM 54.0N 40.5W 955 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE MELISSA IS NOW LOCATED 146 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED.
SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 68 KTS GUSTING TO 86 KTS WERE OBSERVED AT
THE NATIONAL MUSEUM OF BERMUDA NEAR 04Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KTS. PRESENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS NORTHEAST AT 37
KTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE BEING
STEERED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MELISSA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECTED TO STRONG SHEAR AND
COLDER SSTS TODAY, EVENTUALLY PASSING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 20C.
MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO FINISH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS BY THIS EVENING AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
31/06Z 185 230 170 140 95 110 70 50 40 60 35 25
31/12Z 200 240 210 140 95 110 80 40 40 70 35 0
31/18Z 200 260 230 145 95 110 80 40 25 60 30 0
01/00Z 195 270 195 140 100 125 80 0 0 75 25 0
01/06Z 190 305 225 130 90 185 80 0 0 100 0 0
01/12Z 220 350 270 140 90 145 80 0 0 40 0 0
01/18Z 210 350 260 160 70 90 65 0 0 0 0 0
02/00Z 210 340 250 160 60 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
02/06Z 180 320 250 170 50 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
END/CLEMENTS
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