453
FXCN31 CWHX 311200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.29 AM NDT
FRIDAY 31 OCTOBER 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 N AND
LONGITUDE 62.5 W, ABOUT 326 NAUTICAL MILES OR 603 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS (139
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 973 MB. MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
38 KNOTS (70 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
OCT 31 9.30 AM 37.5N 62.5W 973 75 139
OCT 31 3.30 PM 40.7N 59.2W 974 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.30 PM 43.8N 55.8W 973 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 AM 46.6N 52.6W 971 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 AM 49.5N 48.9W 968 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 PM 51.1N 46.5W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 PM 53.3N 43.1W 964 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 2.30 AM 54.0N 40.5W 962 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE MELISSA IS NOW LOCATED 326 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND
CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MELISSA IS OVER SSTS NEAR
23 DEGREES C AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY LIMITED WITH RAGGED
CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT ON THE IR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AS 75 KTS AND MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS
NORTHEAST AROUND 36 KTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE BEING
STEERED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MELISSA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY (IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS) AS IT CONTINUES TO BE
SUBJECTED TO STRONG SHEAR AND COLDER SSTS TODAY, EVENTUALLY PASSING
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 20C. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BE DECLARED
POST-TROPICAL TODAY, AND AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME
WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN PASSES NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
31/12Z 200 240 210 140 95 110 80 40 40 70 35 0
31/18Z 200 260 230 145 95 110 80 40 25 60 30 0
01/00Z 195 270 195 140 100 125 80 0 0 75 25 0
01/06Z 190 305 225 130 90 185 80 0 0 100 0 0
01/12Z 220 350 270 140 90 145 80 0 0 40 0 0
01/18Z 210 350 260 160 70 90 65 0 0 0 0 0
02/00Z 210 340 250 160 60 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
02/06Z 180 320 250 170 50 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/CLEMENTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page