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FXCN31 CWHX 311800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.10 PM NDT
FRIDAY 31 OCTOBER 2025.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.30 PM NDT, POST-TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.4 N AND LONGITUDE 59.5 W, ABOUT 468 NAUTICAL MILES OR 866 KM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS (130 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 974 MB. MELISSA IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS (74 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
OCT 31 3.30 PM 40.4N 59.5W 974 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.30 PM 43.8N 55.8W 973 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 AM 46.8N 52.4W 971 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 AM 49.8N 48.4W 968 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.30 PM 51.5N 45.9W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 9.30 PM 53.1N 43.1W 964 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 2.30 AM 54.0N 40.5W 962 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
NOW POST-TROPICAL MELISSA CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
MELISSA IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22 DEGREES C AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THIS ALSO SOME LIGHTNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AS 70 KTS AND MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AS NORTHEAST AROUND 36 KTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NOTE: THIS FORECAST TRACK IS A BIT FASTER (BY ABOUT 2 HOURS) THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK LINE/STORM HEADING.
MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE BEING STEERED
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. POST-TROPICAL MELISSA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY (IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS) BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CENTRAL PRESSURE TONIGHT IS FORECAST DUE TO BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
31/18Z 200 260 230 145 95 110 80 40 25 60 30 0
01/00Z 195 270 195 140 100 125 80 0 0 75 25 0
01/06Z 190 305 225 130 90 185 80 0 0 100 0 0
01/12Z 220 350 270 140 90 145 80 0 0 0 0 0
01/18Z 210 350 260 160 70 90 65 0 0 0 0 0
02/00Z 210 340 250 160 60 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
02/06Z 180 320 250 170 50 70 60 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY
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