726
FOCN45 CWWG 161300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST SATURDAY
NOVEMBER 16 2024.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNING IN RESOLUTE. FOG ADVISORIES FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA. SNOWFALL WARNING FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
MACKENZIE VALLEY, SOUTH THROUGH ALBERTA BEFORE CONNECTING TO AN UPPER
LOW OVER NEVADA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER HUDSON
BAY AND THE KIVALLIQ REGION. A CUTOFF LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE, A 999 MB LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM
FRONT ARCING NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A POTENT 984 MB LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL WAVE WITH THE WARM FRONT
ARCING INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PRAIRIES. A 1034 MB
HIGH SITS OVER FOXE BASIN.
DISCUSSION...
ALBERTA... FOG PATCHES ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN IN ALBERTA, WITH
REDUCED VISIBILIES IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT MOST PROBLEMATIC IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ALBERTA FOOTHILLS, WHERE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED IN SOME AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MORNING WITH
STRATUS ADVECTING AWAY LATER TODAY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS
SAME FLOW SHOULD GIVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS TO THE ALBERTA
FOOTHILLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH JUST
STRATUS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
WAVE IN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY IMPACTING
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY. A WINTERY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A HARD RAIN/
SNOW LINE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE MANITOBA
PARKLANDS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL REMAIN AS SHOWERS/
RAINFALL FOR THE DAY ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE RIDING
MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE REST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA INCLUDING THE PARKLANDS REGION WITH 8-15 CM
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE INDICATED HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
OCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOOSE MOUNTAINS IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND THE RIDING MOUNTAINS IN MANITOBA. A SNOWFALL WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.
ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SLIPPERY COME SUNDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR WILL BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
RAMP UP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL REMIAN AS PRIMARILY
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
AND A RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE PRAIRIES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
KITIKMEOT AND HIGH ARCTIC...A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND A HIGH OVER GREENLAND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION.
WORST WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR RESOLUTE WHERE BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO A BLIZZARD BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SNOW IS FALLING AND WINDS GUST TO 90 KM/H HALL
BEACH AND CAMBRIDGE BAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE BLOWING SNOW.
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE NT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SOME COMMUNITIES
AROUND THAT AREA AND THEN INTO OTHER AREAS OF NE NT TODAY. AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE LIGHT, WITH NO MORE THAN 5 CM FORECAST IN ANY POPULATED
AREA. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOME COMMUNITIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
EASTERN ARCTIC...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE KIVALLIQ
TODAY SUPPORTED BY THE NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH RANKIN/CHESTERFEILD INLET, AND BAKER LAKE PICKING
UP 2 CM OF FRESH SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NIL SIG WX FOR BAFFIN ISLAND.
END/ZIOLKOWSKI/PASPC-EDM
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