882
FOCN45 CWWG 171246
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST SUNDAY
NOVEMBER 17 2024.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RESOLUTE.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WITH
A TROUGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF BC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW: ONE OVER ALASKA, ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BC, ANOTHER NEAR GREAT SLAVE LAKE AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN
KIVALLIQ. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER BAFFIN ISLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, A 983 MB LOW IS NEAR PEACE RIVER, AB WITH A TROUGH
SOUTHWARD ACORSS ALBERTA. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
LOW, THROUGH TO VICTORIA ISLAND. A 994 MB LOW IS OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TO NORTH DAKOTA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER BAFFIN ISLAND.
DISCUSSION...
ALBERTA/NRN SK...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL EASE AS THE FLOW WEAKENS ALOFT BY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-10 CM OF SNOW POSSIBLE
FOR SOME AREAS ALONG ITS TRACK. AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLD AIR WRAPS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILTY OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. A NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SE AB BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 CM POSSIBLE. WITH THE INSTABILITY EXACTLY WHERE AND
HOW MUCH WILL FALL IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN.
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE IN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE PROVINCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ALL ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL IMPROVE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THE NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO HIT THE EASTERN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON TUESDAY, TRACKING IN FROM THE US. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN, SNOW, AND A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN TO EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON LOCATION
OR AMOUNT OF SNOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
WHAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IS INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY SNOW BLOSSOMING
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR MANITOBA, AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWARD, IT WILL PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WITH IT. WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTING NORWARD, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN,
OR FREEZING RAIN OVER AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. COLD AIR WILL
QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE LOW, AS AN ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY, AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW. ALONG WITH THE SNOW,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. WARNING BULLETINS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.
NWT, KITIKMEOT AND HIGH ARCTIC...A TIGHT GRADIENT IS CAUSING STRONG
WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE NWT BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TERRITORY.
KIVALLIQ...FOG, LIGHT SNOW, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KIVALLIQ
TODAY. THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN BC WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PUSHING SNOW THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 CM ARE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
NIL SIG WX FOR BAFFIN ISLAND.
END/MOODIE/ROMBOUGH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page