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FOCN45 CWWG 161300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST THURSDAY
JANUARY 16 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR CENTRAL MANITOBA.
FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA. SNOW SQUALL
WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALBERTA. BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF SK. WIND WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
ALBERTA FROM PEACE RIVER DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA, AS WELL AS
SHAUNAVON REGION IN SASKATCHEWAN. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS, LAKE WINNIPEG NORTH BASIN AND BAKER LAKE. WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR LAKE MANITOBA, LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTH BASIN AND RED RIVER
VALLEY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE PRAIRIES AND
TROUGH OVER BC. SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA HEADS SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH THE STEERING FLOW. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC, A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW EXISTS, ANCHORED BY A CENTRE OVER BAFFIN BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW CENTRE OVER NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA. ANOTHER LOW
NEAR YBK. RIDGE FROM THE HIGH WESTERN ARCTIC INTO FOXE BASIN.
LOW CENTRE OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING OVER EASTERN DAVIS
STRAIT.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NRN SK: A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS COMING DOWN THE PIPES FOR
ALBERTA TODAY AFTER A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
BENIGN WEATHER. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
PROVINCE WILL BRING A NUMBER OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, NAMELY: HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS,
FREEZING RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS.
SNOW: AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF ITS
PATH. 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW IS FORECAST ALONG A LINE FROM RAINBOW LAKE
THROUGH CUMBERLAND HOUSE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
GENERALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL, AFLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW, WHEREAS
AREAS WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER APPEAR RELATIVELY DRY ON PROG
SOUNDINGS. WHILE THE FREEZING RAIN RISK EXISTS ALL ALONG THE FRONT
FROM THE PEACE REGION EAST THROUGH COLD LAKE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS FOR AREAS EAST OF LESSER SLAVE
LAKE. WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS.
SNOW SQUALLS: THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER (UPWARDS OF 200
J/KG OF MUCAPE). WITH FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS RUNNING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF FRONTAL SNOW SQUALLS,
STARTING IN WESTERN ALBERTA IN THE GRANDE PRAIRIE AREA AND TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 43 CORRIDOR TOWARDS EDMONTON THIS
MORNING. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET AND POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN, SO THE CONCERN IS NOT NECESSARILY ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW
COMBINING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO ON HEAVILY TRAVELED
ROUTES. AS A RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TODAY.
WIND: THERE ARE SEVERAL MECHANISMS GENERATING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FIRSTLY, AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH ALBERTA THIS MORNING, IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS TO 90 KM/H FROM PEACE COUNTRY
THROUGH EDMONTON AS PRECIPITATION HELPS STRONG WINDS MIX DOWN FROM
ALOFT.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL COME AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OPEN AREAS
OF NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA INCLUDING GRANDE PRAIRIE, PEACE RIVER AND
SLAVE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 90 KM/H
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EDMONTON AREA AND ALONG THE YELLOWHEAD
CORRIDOR OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DIVE SOUTH TONIGHT, SO TOO WILL THE STRONG WINDS WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA EXPECTED TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 90 KM/H BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A WIDE SWATH OF WIND WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
FINALLY, ONGOING GAP WINDS THROUGH CROWSNEST PASS WILL RAMP UP
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA
EXPECTED TO REACH 90-110 KM/H. STRONG WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE INVERSION IN THE AREA
THAT IS FORCING THE WINDS OUT THROUGH CROWSNEST PASS. THIS MAY SET
UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEFORE THE INVERSION LIFTS TOO
HIGH TO BE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW: THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FALL IN THE TREE-COVREED AREAS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. HOWEVER,
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WRAP BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALBERTA TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY STRONG
WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN RECENT DAYS HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THE EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO BLOWING SNOW.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF A FEW CENTIMETRES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 90 KM/H OVER RELATIVELY FLAT, OPEN
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS EAST OF EDMONTON WHERE MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
FINALLY MB/SK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL SPREAD A SWATH OF 10 TO 20 CM OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES THAT REACHES EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL WARNINGS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUE.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES WILL EXPERIENCE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ALBERTA LOW, A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
AND ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOOD SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND THEN MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. IN ADDITION, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A
CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THAT, BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
PRAIRIES ON THE WEEKEND AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
ARCTIC...EXTREME COLD MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND
MELVILLE PENINSULA COMMUNITIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE KITIKMEOT AND
RESOLUTE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NWT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR SOME
OF THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. WITH GUST OF UP TO 80 KM/H BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN YBK THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO ARVIAT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA IS INVESTIGATING THE
DISCONTINUATION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION. IF YOU USE
THIS BULLETIN AND HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR CONCERNS, PLEASE CONTACT US AT
FOCN45@EC.GC.CA WITH THE SUBJECT: "SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION
FEEDBACK" INCLUDE YOUR ORGANIZATION AND HOW YOU USE THIS PRODUCT.
END/SPC-YWG/STAUNTON
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