834
FOCN45 CWWG 162000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST THURSDAY
JANUARY 16 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALBERTA,
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. FREEZING RAIN WARNING
FOR MUCH OF THE MEADOW LAKE REGION. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF SK. WIND WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF ALBERTA FROM
PEACE RIVER SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA, AS WELL AS SHAUNAVON
REGION IN SASKATCHEWAN. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LAKE WINNIPEGOSIS, LAKE
WINNIPEG NORTH BASIN AND BAKER LAKE. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE
MANITOBA, LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTH BASIN AND RED RIVER VALLEY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...THE 12Z UPPER ANALYSES REVEALED A LOW AND SHARP
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BC AND A LOW OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL ALBERTA/
WEST-CENTRAL SK WITH A FAIRLY SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FROM IT. ANOTHER LOW IS NEAR BAKER LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NRN SK: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT FOR ALBERTA TODAY
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EAST-CENTRAL
ALBERTA/WEST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING A NUMBER OF FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NAMELY: HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SNOW SQUALLS, FREEZING RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS.
HEAVY SNOW: AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF ITS PATH. 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW IS
FORECAST ALONG A LINE FROM RAINBOW LAKE THROUGH CUMBERLAND HOUSE BY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW GENERALLY FALLING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
FREEZING RAIN: A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. ALL FREEZING RAIN WARNINGS HAVE SINCE BEEN
ENDED.
SNOW SQUALLS: THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CREATED A STRONG
BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. RAIN QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW AS
THE COLUMN COOLED. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR ABOUT
AN HOUR THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER,
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS. ALL SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND WARNING
HAVE BEEN ENDED.
WIND: THERE ARE SEVERAL MECHANISMS GENERATING STRONG WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRSTLY, STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY.
A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL COME AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OPEN AREAS
OF NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA INCLUDING GRANDE PRAIRIE, PEACE RIVER AND
SLAVE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 90 KM/H
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EDMONTON AREA AND ALONG THE YELLOWHEAD
CORRIDOR OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, SO TOO WILL THE STRONG WINDS,
WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA EXPECTED TO SEE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 90 KM/H THIS EVENING. A WIDE SWATH
OF WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, ONGOING STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 110 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. A WIND WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
BLOWING SNOW: THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FALL IN THE TREE-COVERED AREAS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. HOWEVER,
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WRAP BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALBERTA TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY STRONG
WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN RECENT DAYS HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THE EXISTING SNOWPACK WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO BLOWING SNOW.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF A FEW CENTIMETRES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 90 KM/H OVER RELATIVELY FLAT, OPEN
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS EAST OF EDMONTON WHERE MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
MB/SK...THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL SPREAD A SWATH OF 10 TO
20 CM OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES THAT REACHES EAST-CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA, EXITING
INTO ONTARIO BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOME FREEZING RAIN SNUCK INTO WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WEST OF MEADOW
LAKE LATE THIS MORNING, AND A SHORT-FUSE FREEZING RAIN WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS SHOULD END LATER TODAY.
WINDS IN SW SK WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERE-LEVEL
GUSTS LIKELY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CYPRESS HILLS; A WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW'S TRACK, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, PEAKING AT AROUND 70 KM/H IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 100 KM/H IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOME FRESH SNOW AND A SOMEWHAT LOOSE SNOWPACK, BLOWING
SNOW IS LIKELY. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
SAKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME, AND WILL BE EXTENDED TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, WITH THE REALLY STRONG WINDS (60 KNOTS DEPICTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE), WE WILL GO TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THE RRV.
ARCTIC...EXTREME COLD MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND
MELVILLE PENINSULA COMMUNITIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE KITIKMEOT AND
RESOLUTE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NWT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR
SOME OF THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KM/H BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN BAKER LAKE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO ARVIAT AND CHURCHILL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA IS INVESTIGATING THE
DISCONTINUATION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION. IF YOU USE
THIS BULLETIN AND HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR CONCERNS, PLEASE CONTACT US AT
FOCN45@EC. GC. CA WITH THE SUBJECT: "SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION
FEEDBACK" INCLUDE YOUR ORGANIZATION AND HOW YOU USE THIS PRODUCT.
END/CARLSEN/VALLEE
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