837
FOCN45 CWWG 261200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT THURSDAY JUNE
26 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR THE MACKENZIE RIVER
VALLEY AND LYNN LAKE. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENTS FOR A COUPLE
LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA AND NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS SUBTLE RIDGING FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PRAIRIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE UPPER LOWS NEAR VICTORIA ISLAND
AND SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO SITUATED ALONG THE
LABRADOR COAST, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING IS EVIDENT FROM THE YUKON, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH ALBERTA INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA, NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY
TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND, AND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. RIDGING
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC THROUGH VICTORIA ISLAND
TOWARDS KIVALLIQ. A WEAKENING LOW-PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND.
DISCUSSION...
AB...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
PROVINCE, MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. WITH 20-30 KTS OF BWD AND CAPES NEAR
1000 J/KG, MULTICELL MODES APPEAR MOST LIKELY WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. STEERING FLOW BECOMES WEAKER
OVER NRN PARTS OF THE PROVINCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN THERE WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW FORWARD MOTION. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR PARAMETERS IN PLAY.
ELSEWHERE, SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT AROUND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT FROM SPREADING TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE.
SK...ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. BY THIS AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE
WARM-SECTOR TROUGH, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY. CURRENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TEENS, CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM BWD PROJECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE FORECASTED TO INITIATE NEAR REGINA AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO EXISTS, IT IS
CONSIDERED TO BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STORM MODE IS LOOKING TO BE
RATHER MESSY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN; HOWEVER, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
MB...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA, HOWEVER, STORMS FROM SASKATCHEWAN, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE, COULD DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PROVINCE
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY, BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY CONCERNS IN LYNN LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE TOWN. SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED A FAIR BIT OF
SMOKE BEING PRODUCED BY WILDFIRES SOUTH OF TOWN, AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO SASKATCHEWAN, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
NT...AREAS OF SMOKE AND POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUE, ALBEIT WITH SOME
MINOR IMPROVEMENT OVER YESTERDAY FOR AREAS NEAR WRIGLEY AND NORMAN
WELLS. SAQS AND AQW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS LIKELY TO PUSH THIS SMOKE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE, NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER SRN PARTS OF THE TERRITORY NEAR
THE 60TH PARALLEL TODAY.
NU...SEASONAL WEATHER CONTINUES.
END/KOKOLSKY/VAN LOCHEM
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