432
FOCN45 CWWG 261900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY JUNE
26 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ALBERTA AND PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN. AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR FORT
LAIRD AND LYNN LAKE. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENTS ALONG THE
MACKENZIE RIVER AND FAR NORTHWEST ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS SUBTLE RIDGING FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PRAIRIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE UPPER LOWS NEAR VICTORIA ISLAND AND
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO SITUATED ALONG THE LABRADOR
COAST, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING IS EVIDENT FROM THE YUKON, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WHILE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS BACK THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM SECTOR TROUGH
LIES ACROSS EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER
EASTERN HUDSON BAY TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND, AND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC THROUGH
VICTORIA ISLAND TOWARDS KIVALLIQ.
DISCUSSION...
AB...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
PROVINCE, MOSTLY NON-SEVERE, THOUGH A WATCH IS BEING ISSUED IN THE
FAR NORTH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG A TROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH,
NON-SEVERE MULTICELL MODES APPEAR LIKELY WITH 20-30 KTS OF BWD AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR
PARAMETERS IN PLAY.
ELSEWHERE, SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT AROUND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA, AND
HAS MIXED BACK TO THE SURFACE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A STATEMENT.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE PROVINCE SHOULD SPARE
IT FROM SMOKE.
SK...ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
SASKATCHEWAN.
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE
WARM-SECTOR TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. CURRENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TEENS, CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM BWD PROJECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE FORECASTED TO INITIATE NEAR REGINA AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO EXISTS, IT IS
CONSIDERED TO BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STORM MODE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER
MESSY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN; HOWEVER, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
MB...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA, HOWEVER, STORMS FROM SASKATCHEWAN, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE, COULD DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY, BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY CONCERNS IN LYNN LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE TOWN. SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED A FAIR BIT OF
SMOKE BEING PRODUCED BY WILDFIRES SOUTH OF TOWN, AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO SASKATCHEWAN, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
NT...AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE MACKENZIE VALLEY,
THOUGH SMOKE CAN STILL BE SEEN ALOFT AND MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THE THE AQW HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SAQS FOR THE MACKENZIE VALLEY
FOR THIS REASON. AIR QUALITY REMAINS VERY POOR IN PARTS OF THE FORT
LAIRD REGION WHERE THE AQW IS STILL OUT. ELSEWHERE, NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SRN PARTS OF THE TERRITORY NEAR THE
60TH PARALLEL TODAY, THOUGH SMOKE MAY PUT A BRAKE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT TODAY.
NU...SEASONAL WEATHER CONTINUES.
END/DYKES/KOKOLSKY/VAN LOCHEM
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