061
FOCN45 CWWG 061900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SUNDAY JULY
6 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...THE 12Z UPPER ANALYSES REVEALED TROUGHS OVER
ALBERTA, ND/MT, AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC, ALL AROUND A GENERALLY
CYCLONIC FLOW. A RIDGE SITS OVER THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN NT. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE SW NT AND NE SK.
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF WESTERN CANADA,
WITH A WEAK TROUGH POKING THROUGH ON THE AB/SK BORDER. A LOW IS
DECAYING OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND THERE'S A LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
DISCUSSION...
AB...OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA, ALONG THE UPPER JET HIGHER WIND SHEAR
(EBWD AROUND 35 KT) ALONG WITH MODEST MLCAPE UP TO 600 J/KG HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST POSSIBLE. OVER
EXTREME EASTERN REGIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY TRACK TO THE
EAST WHERE THEY WILL INTENSIFY OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA, THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST. ROUGHLY 10-20 MM OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. AROUND THE LOW, FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PROVINCE AND INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO FOCUS
THESE NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SK/MB...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH ALBERTA WILL LIKELY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SOON. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SURFACE FEATURE, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET ROUDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF BWD
AND 500 TO 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH, THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE SHORTWAVE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN, BUT WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POOR AIR QUALITY VALUES
THROUGH PARTS OF MANITOBA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
NT...IN THE MACKENZIE, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER-WISE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN
REGIONS WHERE THE PRIMARY THREAT IS STRONG WING GUSTS. WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS AFFECTING SOME AREAS.
NU...A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME MIXED TYPE
PRECIP TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. OTHERWISE SOME FOG/DRIZZLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVER A FEW REGIONS.
END/CARLSEN/ROMBOUGH
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