913
FOCN45 CWWG 181200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT FRIDAY JULY
18 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR PARTS OF ALBERTA,
SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA, AND THE NT. HEAT WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN NT.
SYNOPSIS...THE 00Z UPPER ANALYSES REVEALED A LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PRAIRIES AND OVER CENTRAL BC. RIDGE
OVER ALBERTA. LOW OVER BANKS ISLAND WITH TROUGH TOWARD GREAT BEAR
LAKE.
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN NWT WITH NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH.
DISCUSSION...
AB...THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AB
ALONG A DEVELOPING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL STALL AROUND THE EDMONTON AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50 MM FOR AREAS WEST OF
EDMONTON BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO ON SATURDAY.
SMOKE FROM BOTH SK AND THE NWT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN AB
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SK/MB...THE SMOKE IS KEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN FIRES OF
NOTE CONTINUE TO FUMIGATE DOWNSTREAM REGIONS AND THE AREAS AFFECTED
WILL DEPEND ON THE WINDS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A
FAIRLY SLACK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE, SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD, MOSTLY COVERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND AREAS IN
SASKATCHEWAN NORTH OF THE YELLOWHEAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. SMOKE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOME OR ALL OF THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND POCKETS OF UP TO 45
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ARCTIC...THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND AND KIVALLIQ. WITH
WEAK FLOW SETTLING OVER THE AREA, REMNANT CLOUD, DRIZZLE, AND FOG
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP SPIN UP A NEW LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND WILL WRAP AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN VICTORIA
ISLAND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NE. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS BUT RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR 25 MM ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF THE ISLAND.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NWT ENDING THE
HEAT, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS, AND PUSHING SMOKE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HARD TO SAY IF FIRES WILL STILL CONTINUE PRODUCING MUCH SMOKE ONCE
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY.
END/CARLSEN/ROMBOUGH
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