467
FOCN45 CWWG 051200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT SUNDAY OCTOBER
5 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FOR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR FORT SIMPSON.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, A STRONGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONTINENT, DOMINATED BY A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
COMPLEX OVER WESTERN NUNAVUT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTO
UTAH. NUMEROUS PROMINENT AND WEATHER MAKING SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED,
WITH THE LARGEST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND BAKER LAKE, BUT WEAKER
VORTS CAN BE SPOTTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA, MEADOW LAKE, AND GREAT
BEAR LAKE. STRONG RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND ALSO
FOLLOWING BEHIND OVER THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A 986 MB LOW IS CENTRED NEAR KUGAARUK, WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA. A 994 MB LOW HAS RAPIDLY
DEEPENED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BEYOND. A HIGH
CENTRE SITS OVER CENTRAL BC, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING MOST OF WEST IN
BEHIND THE TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC,
NEAR ELLESMERE ISLAND. A WEAK LOW LIES OVER THE WESTERN NWT.
DISCUSSION...
AB...THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING
SOUTHERNMOST ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING. UP TO 4 CENTIMETRES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WAS RECORDED LAST NIGHT ALONG THE ALBERTA
FOOTHILLS AND AT WATERTON PARK GATE. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR ALBERTA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH RIDGING BUIDING IN FIRST
OVER THE SOUTH, THEN THE NORTH. NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS THEN FLURRIES TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
SRN SK...FROST WARNINGS HAVE ENDED FOR THE YEAR, BUT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL FINALLY SEE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
NRN SK...A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND THIS LOOKS SET TO BRING FLURRIES AND SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
COLLINS BAY REGION, WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TAMPED BACK A LITTLE TO A
LOCAL 5 CM. LOCAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN OTHER PARTS
OF THE FAR NORTH OF SASKATCHEWAN.
SOUTHERN MB...SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARRIVED AND DEPARTED AS IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER LAST EVENING, WITH PING PONG SIZED HAIL REPORTED
AT SPRAGUE ALONG WITH A QUICK 53 MM DOWNPOUR. A FEW STRIKES LINGER
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH BUT ALL IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
RAIN.
RAINFALL WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINBAND LOOKS BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
WARNINGS FROM KILLARNEY NORTHEAST TO THE INTERLAKE. THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR THE 50 MM THOUGH IN A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH.
MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNIPEG HAS KEPT
THINGS TO LIGHTER INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SO FAR. THE FAST MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILL PULL THE RAIN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT TOTAL SYNOPTIC AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESSER
IN GENERAL AWAY FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE - MORE IN THE 30 TO 40 MM
RANGE.
THE LOW, WHILE QUITE SMALL AND COMPACT, HAS DEEPENED EXPLOSIVELY AND
THERE IS NOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK WITH CONVECTION
RESOLVED. AS SUCH, WIND HAS BECOME A CONCERN AS THE LOW STARTS
HEADING TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS THIS MORNING. A SHORT BOUT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE NORTHERLY WINDS SHAPES UP MID MORNING AND ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON - BROADLY GUSTING 80 KM/H ACROSS MOST OF THE RAIN
WARNED AREA, BUT THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO GET THE WORST
OF IT AND INTO THE 90 TO 100 KM/H RANGE. WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ARE
OUT.
THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN SWIFTLY LATE DAY, LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ONGOING ACROSS THE PROVINCE THROUGH MONDAY COURTESY THE MANY SMALLER
SHORTWAVES TO THE WEST. UP NORTH, THIS WILL BE TURNING TO FLURRIES
FOR THE LYNN LAKE AREA NORTHWARDS TO NUNAVUT AS COLD AIR ADVANCES AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. PERHAPS A COUPLE CENTIMETERS
HERE AND THERE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOST OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA CAN EXPECT
TO SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES - AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND MID WEEK.
NT...NO WEATHER OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
YUKON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TOO SCANT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
IMPACTS.
SMOKE STILL HASN'T COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AS AN ISSUE OVER THE NT.
A SMOULDERING FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF FORT SIMPSON HAS REDUCED AIR
QUALITY IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE THINK IT WILL SHORTLY IMPROVE AS
THE SURFACE INVERSION DISAPPEARS IN THE MORNING.
NU...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN KITIKMEOT CONINUES TO
STRENGHTEN, WITH SNOW FALLING OVER COMMUNITIES IN THE REGION. STRONG
WINDS GUSTING TO 60 OR 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER GJOA HAVEN AND
TALOYAK TODAY BUT MAY AFFECT KUGAARUK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT IT'S LIKELY AN
ADDITIONAL 2 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW WILL FALL TODAY OVER GJOA HAVEN AND
TALOYAK, WHILE KUGAARUK, STUCK JUST WEST OF THE TROWAL, WILL LIKELY
SEE 10 TO 15 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST IS A SLIGHT REDUCTION FROM WHAT THE RDPS IS GIVING,
GIVEN THAT IT'S A LITTLE STRONGER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE AND HAS SOME
TENDENCY TO OVERESTIMATE PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE KIVALLIQ
REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 80 KM/H TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE AT CHESTERFIELD INLET, AND MAY FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA SO THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY - AND IF NOT TODAY, MONDAY LOOKS
VERY LIKELY TO HAVE SEVERE 90 OR 100 KM/H GUST AT CHESTERFIELD AND
RANKIN AS THE LOW DRIFTS INTO FOXE BASIN WHILE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP FURTHER ON THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE
CENTIMETERS OF SNOW AND THUS POTENTIALLY SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS -
THOUGH SUB BLIZZARD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR FREEZING AND NO
SNOWPACK TO SPEAK OF.
END/KNIGHT/BATE
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