205
FOCN45 CWWG 051900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SUNDAY OCTOBER
5 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FOR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR FORT PROVIDENCE.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, A STRONGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONTINENT, DOMINATED BY A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
COMPLEX OVER WESTERN NUNAVUT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTO
UTAH. NUMEROUS PROMINENT AND WEATHER MAKING SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED,
WITH THE LARGEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND, BUT WEAKER VORTS CAN BE SPOTTED OVER
WESTERN MONTANA, PRINCE ALBERT, AND BETWEEN GREAT BEAR AND GREAT
SLAVE LAKE. STRONG RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND ALSO
FOLLOWING BEHIND OVER THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A 986 MB LOW IS CENTRED NEAR KUGAARUK, WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA. A 994 MB LOW HAS RAPIDLY
DEEPENED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BEYOND. A HIGH
CENTRE SITS OVER CENTRAL BC, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING MOST OF THE WEST
IN BEHIND THE TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC,
NEAR ELLESMERE ISLAND. A WEAK LOW LIES OVER THE WESTERN NWT.
DISCUSSION...
AB...THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXITED SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALBERTA THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PROVINCE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS THEN FLURRIES TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.
SRN SK...FROST WARNINGS HAVE ENDED FOR THE YEAR, BUT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL FINALLY SEE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
NRN SK...A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND THIS LOOKS SET TO BRING FLURRIES AND SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
COLLINS BAY AND STONY RAPIDS REGIONS, WHERE ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 5 CM ARE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN MB...SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARRIVED AND DEPARTED AS IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER LAST EVENING, WITH PING PONG SIZED HAIL REPORTED
AT SPRAGUE ALONG WITH A QUICK 53 MM DOWNPOUR. A FEW STRIKES LINGER
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH BUT ALL IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
RAIN.
RAINFALL WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINBAND LOOKS BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
WARNINGS FROM KILLARNEY NORTHEAST TO THE INTERLAKE. THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR THE 50 MM THOUGH IN A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH.
MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNIPEG HAS KEPT
THINGS TO LIGHTER INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SO FAR. THE FAST MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILL PULL THE RAIN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT TOTAL SYNOPTIC AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESSER
IN GENERAL AWAY FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE - MORE IN THE 30 TO 40 MM
RANGE.
THE LOW, WHILE QUITE SMALL AND COMPACT, HAS DEEPENED EXPLOSIVELY AND
THERE IS NOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK WITH CONVECTION
RESOLVED. AS SUCH, WIND HAS BECOME A CONCERN AS THE LOW STARTS
HEADING TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS THIS MORNING. A SHORT BOUT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE NORTHERLY WINDS SHAPES UP MID MORNING AND ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON - BROADLY GUSTING 80 KM/H ACROSS MOST OF THE RAIN
WARNED AREA, BUT THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO GET THE WORST
OF IT AND INTO THE 90 TO 100 KM/H RANGE. WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ARE
OUT.
THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN SWIFTLY LATE DAY, LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ONGOING ACROSS THE PROVINCE THROUGH MONDAY COURTESY THE MANY SMALLER
SHORTWAVES TO THE WEST. UP NORTH, THIS WILL BE TURNING TO FLURRIES
FOR THE LYNN LAKE AREA NORTHWARDS TO NUNAVUT AS COLD AIR ADVANCES AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. PERHAPS A COUPLE CENTIMETERS
HERE AND THERE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOST OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA CAN EXPECT
TO SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES - AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND MID WEEK.
NT...NO WEATHER OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
YUKON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TOO SCANT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
IMPACTS.
SMOKE HAS CLEARED OUT OF FORT SIMPSON AS EXPECTED, BUT FORT
PROVIDENCE NOW HAS ELEVATED PM 2.5 VALUES DUE TO A FIRE TO THEIR
NORTH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING,
WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
NU...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN KITIKMEOT CONINUES TO
STRENGHTEN, WITH SNOW FALLING OVER COMMUNITIES IN THE REGION. STRONG
WINDS GUSTING TO 60 OR 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER GJOA HAVEN AND
TALOYAK TODAY BUT WILL AFFECT KUGAARUK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR KUGARUUK IS UNCERTAIN, AS THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST INCREASING SNOW TOTALS RUN OVER RUN. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO, AND THE HRDPS IS LESS BULLISH
THAN IT'S LOWER RESOLUTION COUNTERPARTS. FOREIGN GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGEST LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT WOULD BE A MARGINAL SNOWFALL
WARNING, AS 15 CM IN 24 HOURS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. NONE THE
LESS, 15-20 CM MAY BE POSSIBLE AS A STORM TOTAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NO SNOWFALL WARNING WAS ISSUED. VISIBILITY COULD ALSO BE REDUCED AT
TIMES FOR KUGAARUK, AS THE FALLING SNOW COINCIDES WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE KIVALLIQ
REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 80 KM/H TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE AT CHESTERFIELD INLET, AND MAY FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA SO THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY - AND IF NOT TODAY, MONDAY LOOKS
VERY LIKELY TO HAVE SEVERE 90 OR 100 KM/H GUST AT CHESTERFIELD AND
RANKIN AS THE LOW DRIFTS INTO FOXE BASIN WHILE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP FURTHER ON THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE
CENTIMETERS OF SNOW AND THUS POTENTIALLY SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS -
THOUGH SUB BLIZZARD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR FREEZING AND NO
SNOWPACK TO SPEAK OF.
END/KNIGHT/STAMMERS/CUNNINGHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page