343
FOCN45 CWWG 131900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY OCTOBER
13 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR AREAS OF NORTHERN MANITOBA
AND PELICAN NARROWS. WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF
NORTHERN MANITOBA. WIND WARNING FOR CLYDE RIVER.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA, WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE USA. UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A NOW DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW HAS MOVED
INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO FROM MANITOBA. A 973 MB LOW IS NOW OVER
BAFFIN BAY NEAR CLYDE RIVER. AND A 981 MB LOW OVER THE BEAUFOT
SEA. COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND IS
IN NW ONTARIO. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTRED OVER SOUTHERN AB/SW SK.
DISCUSSION...
AB...ALTHOUGH MUCH QUIETER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH THE PROVINCE TODAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO
ASSERT ITSELF AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, NIL SIG WX.
SK/MB...SNOW CONTINUES IN NORTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW NOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.
WITH OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 20CM REPORTED IN THOMPSON THIS MORNING,
AND HEAVY SNOW REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 30CM IN A FEW LOCALITIES BY THE END OF THIS EVENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA. QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
NT...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW CONTINUE FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE NWT,
PARTICULARLY AROUND ULUHAKTOK AND SACHS HARBOUR WHERE A FEW CM OF
SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KM/H WILL RESULT IN A VERY
BLUSTERY DAY. AS THE BEAUFORT LOW MOVES EAST THIS EVENING THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SURGE EVENT IN TUKTOYAKTUK. HIGHEST LEVELS
WOULD BE AROUND 6 OR 7 PM THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS THE WATER ABOUT
15 CM BELOW STAGE 2 LEVELS BUT GUIDANCE IS ALSO RUNNING ABOUT 15 CM
TOO LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THE EVENT THERE LAST SATURDAY THE
SAME MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW AS WELL. THIS EVENT WOULD BE BRIEF.
NU...LOW NOW OVER BAFFIN BAY WILL GIVE A BIT MORE SNOW TO PARTS OF
BAFFIN, BUT MAJORITY NOW DONE. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS WINDS...GUSTS TO
70-80 KM/H HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT IGLOOLIK AND QIKIQTARJUAK, BUT MOST
FAVOURABLE LOCATION WILL BE CLYDE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHERE GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H WILL BE POSSIBLE.
END/FULTON/WIELKI
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