058
FOCN45 CWWG 232000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST SUNDAY
NOVEMBER 23 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIES WITH A FEW IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. FURTHER NORTH, SEVERAL UPPER LOWS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION, MOST NOTABLE IS ONE OVER SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ, ONE
OVER FOXE BASIN AND ANOTHER IS LOCATED ALONG THE LABRADOR COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHWARD THROUGH YUKON
AND BC. A 998 MB LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ WITH A TROUGH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PRAIRIES. ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE TROUGH, OVER EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A 983 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS
OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NORTHERN SK...SNOW OVER WESTERN ALBERTA IS GRADUALLY SLUMPING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. WARNINGS WILL BE ENDED
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SNOW EASES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA
TONIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST
AND REACH THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, WITH
10-15 CM EXPECTED FOR REGIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 3. A SECONDARY AREA OF
HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCING ACCUMULATIONS. A SNOWFALL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PINCHER CREEK AND WATERTON. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN
NEAR THE US BORDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN QPF, THE THREAT AREA IS QUITE
NARROW AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO SNOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
SOUTHERN SK/MB...FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME,
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
RAIN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD; HOWEVER, THIS RISK APPEARS MINIMAL.
A NOTABLE CONCERN EXISTS FOR THE CYPRESS HILLS, WHERE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD TO
WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL. WARNINGS FOR THIS MAY BE ISSUED AT A LATER
TIME.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD, IT WILL MERGE WITH A COLORADO LOW
ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IMPACTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA; ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, EXPECT COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE IN, MARKING AN END TO THE RECENT MILD CONDITIONS.
NT...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN NWT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY,
BRINGING SNOW TO THE MACKENZIE DELTA. ANOTHER 5-10 OR SO CENTIMETRES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
NUNAVUT...PATCHY FOG, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST COMMUNITIES. MORE ORGANIZED SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN HUDSON STRAIT AND SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
END/KOKOLSKY/MOODIE/STAUNTON/GRIFFITH
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