998
FOCN45 CWWG 252000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST TUESDAY
NOVEMBER 25 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...NONE.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, A ZONAL FLOW ENTERS WESTERN CANADA
IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THEN DIPS INTO THE AMERICAN PLAINS; A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER SOUTH TO
OKLAHOMA. THE FLOW REBOUNDS BACK INTO ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LABRADOR SEA SOUTH INTO THE
ATLANTIC, GLANCING OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ARCTIC
HAS SLACK FLOW OVER MUCH OF IT; A WEAK UPPER LOW SITS ALONG THE
ALASKA/YUKON BORDER, AN UPPER HIGH SITS OVER EASTERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT, AND ANOTHER UPPER HIGH SITS OVER DAVIS
STRAIT. A CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
ARCHIPELAGO AND NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ARCTIC THROUGH EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. EAST OF THIS, A 1007 MB LOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT THAT
ARCS EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURLS
AROUND THIS, RUNNING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO, THEN ARCS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ONWARDS TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM RUNS FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHWEST TO THE
ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE
ALASKA COAST. THE ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN
BAFFIN ISLAND, CUTS INTO THE SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ, THEN TURNS NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NORTHERN SK...LIGHT FLURRIES UNDER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE, WHILE
PATCHY FOG IN ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
SOUTHERN SK/MB...FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER MANITOBA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, DRIVEN BY TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST WILL BE
LAKE-DRIVEN SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MAJOR SNOW-SQUALLS, BUT A NOTABLE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH BASIN OF LAKE WINNIPEG, TRACK OVER THE NARROWS
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH BASIN, AND THEN HEAD INTO THE PINAWA REGION.
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 CM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROWS
REGION, BUT AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTH BASIN WILL LIKELY END
UP IN THE TRACE TO 5 TO 10 CM RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF OF LAKE MANITOBA AND WINNIPEGOSIS,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS FURTHER EAST.
THE SECOND SNOW GENERATOR WILL BE A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRACKING SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FAVOURABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SNOW
GENERATION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLURRY ACTIVITY, AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE COOL,
CLOUDY WEATHER.
NUNAVUT...PATCHY FOG, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST COMMUNITIES. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD BLSN IN
THE RESOLUTE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO
60 KM/H ARE PROBABLE BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL TO ACCOMPANY IT, BLZD
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KM/H CONTINUE IN BAKER LAKE
(CYBK) AND NAUJAAT (CYUT) TODAY; CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FINE IN BAKER
LAKE BUT BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN AN ISSUE AT TIMES. TEPHIGRAM ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS WHAT'S GOING ON AND WE DO NOT EXPECT A WORSENING OF
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL EASE AT BAKER LAKE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
CONTINUE IN NAUJAAT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING FOR THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE MELVILLE PENINSULA LATER TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
THAT BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL EASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
END/VROLIJK/GERGELY
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