552
FOCN45 CWWG 152000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST MONDAY
DECEMBER 15 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
THE ICEFIELDS PARKWAY. WIND WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
COLD WARNING FOR DELINE. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TUKTOYAKTUK.
WIND, FREEZING RAIN AND BLOWING SNOW WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SK/MB. COLD WARNING TO BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE KIVALLIQ.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE UPPER FLOW ASCENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM THAT SITS CENTRED OVER ALBERTA AND ARCS NORTHWEST INTO
YUKON. NORTH OF THIS, THE POLAR VORTEX SITS OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
ARCHIPELAGO WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OVER BAFFIN ISLAND.
BACK IN THE SOUTH, THE UPPER FLOW DIPS SOUTHEAST AS IT EXITS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS FROM LABRADOR SOUTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE, A 985 MB LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC AND A WARM FRONT
DRAPED TO THE ALBERTA ELBOW REGION THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA. A 1022 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLING ACROSS
ALASKA AND YUKON WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A SECONDARY
1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER, THEN ONWARDS
INTO THE AMERICAN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH, A 993 MB LOW SITS UNDER THE
POLAR VORTEX EAST OF VICTORIA ISLAND WITH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TO A 999
MB LOW OVER EASTERN FOXE BASIN THAT HAS A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS BACK
TO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEAST TO UNGAVA
BAY. THIS LOW'S COLD FRONT IS THE REDEVELOPING A2 FRONT AND LIES
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES AND THEN LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE ALASKA COAST.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PROVINCE
TODAY IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH UP TO 20CM
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH LEVEL REGION. SOUTH OF THE LOW, WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WARNING LEVEL
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONS SOUTH OF CALGARY HAVE SEEN WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 120 KM/H.
OVERNIGHT, AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL
ALBERTA, BRINGING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH THE RAPID COOLING FOLLOWING CLOSE BEING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IN THE AREA IS LIKELY MELTING UNDER WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY, SO EVEN IF RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, ICY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS MELTED SNOW RE-FREEZES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BE QUITE POOR WITH A QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO
OVERLAP VERY WELL WITH THE MOST INTENSE SNOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANY
EXISTING SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BLOW AROUND WITH RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING RAIN. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
BLOWNG SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY, BUT VISIBILITY MAY STILL DROP SHARPLY
BUT BRIEFLY IN HEAVY SNOW WITH THE FRONT.
MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...MAJORITY OF PREVIOUS BULLETIN CONTINUES TO APPLY,
WITH THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENTS. FREEZING RAIN RISK IN THE NORTHERN
GRAINBELT OF SK SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A WARNING, POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MB. WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN SK TONIGHT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY HIT WARNING CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCATIONS, POSSBILY
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MB BY MORNING. WHILE MOST AREAS IN THE WIND
WARNING WILL GET MILD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW, STRONG
(BUT SUB-WARNING) WINDS NORTH OF THE WIND WARNING MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, THINKING REMAINS SIMILIAR THE EARLY MORNING ISSUE (BELOW).
THE NEXT ORGANIZED SNOWFALL FOR THE EASTERN PRAIRIES WILL COME AS
PART OF A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN ON TONIGHT. POWERED BY A SURGE OF MILD PACIFIC AIR
JAMMED AGAINST AN IMPINGING ARCTIC AIR MASS, IT WILL SPREAD A SWATH
OF 10 TO 20 CM OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IN MANITOBA FALLING FROM BROCHET TO LYNN LAKE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GILLAM & SHAMATTAWA, INCLUDING THE THOMPSON AREA. ALONG THE
LOW TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES, LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK, BRINGING 2 TO 4 CM OF FRESH SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES WILL ESCAPE SNOW, WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT
TRACKS EAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ITS WARM FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THE MEADOW LAKE
REGION IN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA PARKLAND AND
SOUTHWEST CORNER. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
RISK STRETCHING FROM EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION.
AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO MANITOBA EARLY TUESDAY, MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST, STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH WINDS UP TO 60 GUSTING 80 KM/H
DEVELOPING OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. SECONDARY TO THAT,
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KM/H WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRESH SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE YELLOWHEAD HIGHWAY CORRIDOR.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MILDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LITTLE NEW SNOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW RISK.
HOT ON ITS HEELS WILL BE AN EVEN MORE POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A NOTABLE WINTER STORM FOR THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES BRINGING A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN, 10 TO 25 CM OF SNOW, AND
STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE IMPACT AREA OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHIFTING AROUND, BUT MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK -- WHICH LOOKS FAVOURABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MORE
NORTHERN TRACKS WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR IMPINGING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM'S NORTHERN FLANK -- THAT WOULD IMPACT THE TRANS-CANADA
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 10 TO 20 CM OF SNOW THAT
BEGINS TO FALL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
QUICKLY SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOOSE JAW, REGINA, BRANDON, AND WINNIPEG WILL ALL BE ALONG THE
PATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE HEAVY SNOW SPREADS EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 60 GUSTING 80 KM/H WILL DEVELOP, COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA
OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND, MOST
LIKELY, BRING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR IN SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BLOWING SNOW AND/OR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION IN
MANITOBA'S RED RIVER VALLEY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. A METNOTE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSPORTATION DELAYS LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SECOND CLIPPER WILL BRING A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA, BUT IT WILL BE SENSITIVE
TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE WARM AIR OCCLUDES.
THE RISK OF FZRA WILL BE ERODED BY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT DEVELOPS,
LEADING TO A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC RISK THAT WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
LASTLY, BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPINGE FURTHER SOUTH BEHIND
EACH OF THE CLIPPERS CROSSING THE PRAIRIES, GRADUALLY BRINGING COLD
WEATHER BACK TO MORE OF THE REGION. IN NORTHERN MANITOBA, SEVERE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -45 WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY EVENING FROM
TADOULE LAKE TOWARDS CHURCHILL AND GRADUALLY BROADEN TO BROCHET
THROUGH GILLAM AND SHAMATTAWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPOTTY WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO -50 WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NWT...POOR VISIBILITY IN TUKTOYAKTUK TODAY, THOUGH SO FAR CONDITIONS
HAVE STOPPED SHORT OF A FULL BLIZZARD. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE SAHTU REGION MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING MINUS 50 TONIGHT.
NUNAVUT...THE ONLY ORGANIZED SNOW THREAT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE FLURRIES AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER HUDSON STRAIT AND MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BAFFIN ISLAND IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOXE BASIN
LOW. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO DAVIS
STRAIT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING PULLS THE ENERGY EAST AND THE WIND FIELD
BEGINS TO SHIFT.
FURTHER WEST, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IN THE KIVALLIQ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 40 KM/H RANGE. BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS PICK UP, BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE NEAR- OR FULL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE
REGION.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MASS
TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILLS OF -55 TO -60
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE KIVALLIQ TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MINOR
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE ACROSS THE REGION.
BLOWING SNOW SEEMS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN KITIKMEOT AS A COMPACT LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND MINIMAL FALLING SNOW MAY KEEP
CONDITIONS FROM DETERIORATING TO A FULL BLIZZARD.
END/FULTON/VROLIJK/STAUNTON
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