558
FOCN45 CWWG 162000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST TUESDAY
DECEMBER 16 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND THE ICEFIELDS PARKWAY. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA. COLD WARNING FOR PARTS OF KIVALLIQ.
FLASH FREEZE WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
FORTHCOMING FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TUKTOYAKTUK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THE POLAR VORTEX IS CENTERED NEAR THE TRI
CITIES OF THE KITIKMEOT WITH UPPER TROUGHING SOUTHWESTWARDS TO THE
GULF OF ALAKSA AND FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FURTHER SOUTH
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS AN UPPER HIGH RESULTING IN A ZONAL
FLOW OVER MOST OF CANADA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, A 989 MB LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PRAIRIES WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA THEN TURNING INTO A WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL BC AND INTO LOW IN GULF OF ALASKA. WARM FRONT FROM
PRAIRIE LOW DRAPED SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A 1022
MB HIGH SITS OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND A 988 MB
LOW SITS IN FOXE BASIN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG A WARM FRONT/TROWAL, EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
A SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EDMONTON AND AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH 15 TO 25 CM EXPECTED. CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND, WITH ONLY
MINOR SHIFTS BETWEEN RUNS. AMERICAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH PLACEMENT BEING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER, THE
MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BEGUN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER NORTH.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL.
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EDMONTON, POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
SNOW IS LIKELY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT, WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HANNA/CORONATION REGION.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALBERTA, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HWY 1 BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. PROFILES ARE UNSTABLE AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE
MID-LEVELS, SO NOT YOUR TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WIND EVENT. BUT GIVEN
FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING 70 KTS AND STRONG RISE-FALL COUPLETS OWING TO
A SUB-980 PARENT LOW, GUSTS TO 130 KM/H ARE PROBABLE OVER THE HWY 3
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LETHBRIDGE AND THE BC BORDER.
FURTHER NORTH AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH WINDS
OF 40 GUSTING TO 60 KM/H MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 2
BETWEEN RED DEER AND CALGARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM, THOUGH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT APPEARS SHALLOW. ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HWY 9 CORRIDOR EAST OF DRUMHELLER.
FINALLY, COLD AIR USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE ALSO EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS OVER SE
AB AS TEMPERATURES DROP AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES IN THREE HOURS.
WILL LIKELY ROPE THIS HAZARD TYPE INTO THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD
TODAY WITH SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN
ABOVE ZERO SO AS THE FRONT PASSES, ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
OCCURRING IN QUICK FORMATION INCLUDING POSSIBLE SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. AS SEEN IN ALBERTA OVERNIGHT, VISIBILITIES CAN
QUICKLY DETERIORATE WHEN SNOW AT TIMES HEAVY MIX WITH WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 80 OR EVEN 90 KM/H. THE GOOD THING IS THAT AT ANY SPECIFIC
TOWNSITE, THESE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LASTING LESS THAN 2 HOURS IN
GENERAL. EVERYWHERE FROM NORTH BATTLEFORD AND SASKATOON THIS MORNING
ALL THE WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TO WINNIPEG THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDIDTIONS TODAY, BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE
ISSUED IF CONDIDTIONS WORSEN.
SOUTH OF THE CLIPPERS COLD FRONT, STRONG WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH GUSTS UP TO
90 KM/H EXEPECTED OR OCCURRING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG
THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR THIS MORNING UNTIL COLLIDING WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER INTO MANITOBA.
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, A SWATH OF SNOW HAS BEEN SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT WITH GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 13 CM
BUT ONLY MINIMAL FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOT ON ITS HEELS WILL BE AN EVEN MORE POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A NOTABLE WINTER STORM FOR THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES BRINGING A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN, 10 TO 25 CM OF SNOW, AND
STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE IMPACT AREA OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHIFTING AROUND, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, MODELS ARE
CONVERGING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND QUICKLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE KINDERSLEY, MOOSE JAW, REGINA, BRANDON, AND
WINNIPEG WILL ALL BE ALONG THE PATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SASKATOON AND SWIFT CURRENT ON THE EDGES OF THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE HEAVY SNOW SPREADS EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 60 GUSTING 80 KM/H WILL DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA
OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND, MOST
LIKELY, BRING BLIZZARD/NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO A LARGE AREA OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BLOWING SNOW AND/OR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION IN MANITOBA'S
RED RIVER VALLEY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA TIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTREMLY STRONG WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTRE ON WEDNESDAY MID DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
110 KM/H POSSIBLE FROM LETHBRIDGE EAST TO VAL MARIE.
THIS SECOND CLIPPER WILL BRING A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA, BUT IT WILL BE SENSITIVE
TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE WARM AIR OCCLUDES.
THE RISK OF FZRA WILL BE ERODED BY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT DEVELOPS,
LEADING TO A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC RISK THAT WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
LASTLY, BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPINGE FURTHER SOUTH BEHIND
EACH OF THE CLIPPERS CROSSING THE PRAIRIES, GRADUALLY BRINGING COLD
WEATHER BACK TO MORE OF THE REGION. IN NORTHERN MANITOBA, SEVERE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -45 WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY EVENING FROM
TADOULE LAKE TOWARDS CHURCHILL AND GRADUALLY BROADEN TO BROCHET
THROUGH GILLAM AND SHAMATTAWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPOTTY WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO -50 WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NWT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AT
TUKTOYAKTUK AS SNOWFALL MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS STRENGTHEN.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO AKLAVIK AND
INUVIK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW FOR THESE COMMUNITIES.
NUNAVUT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE KIVALLIQ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 OR 70 KM/H ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHESTERFIELD INLET WILL BE THE ONE TO
WATCH WITH THE HIGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THERE.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MASS
TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILLS OF -55 TO -60
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE KIVALLIQ THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BLOWING SNOW SEEMS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN KITIKMEOT AS A COMPACT LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND MINIMAL FALLING SNOW MAY KEEP
CONDITIONS FROM DETERIORATING TO A FULL BLIZZARD.
END/LUZNY/KOKOLSKY/GERGELY/VAN LOCHEM
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