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FOCN45 CWWG 302000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST FRIDAY JANUARY
30 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...FREEZING RAIN WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A SECONDARY RIDGE
EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS OVER THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES, ACROSS HUDSON BAY,
AND OVER THE UNGAVA PENINSULA. IN THE EAST, AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NE UNITED
STATES, SOUTHERN ONTARIO, AND INTO THE MIDWEST. IN THE NORTH, A SLACK
FLOW SITS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC, AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
POLE SOUTH TO NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND FOXE BASIN, AND AN UPPER
HIGH SITS OVER GREENLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE ALBERTA ELBOW REGION, THEN DROPS
SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE PACIFIC FRONT SITS IN THIS TROUGH, CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND DIVING SOUTHEAST. A WEAK 1019 MB LOW SITS OVER SOUTHEAST
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES NEAR THE NUNAVUT BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
SWEEPS WEST-NORTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH, CURLING
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AMERICAN PLAINS.
A 1048 MB HIGH IS CENTRED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING
NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LASTLY, A 978 MB LOW SITS NEAR THE LABRADOR
SEA NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A TROUGH NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF GREENLAND. THE ARCTIC FRONT RUNS FROM LABRADOR NORTH TO BAFFIN
BAY.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NT/NORTHERN SK...WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SK WITH UP TO 5 CM OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEND REGION TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH NORTHERN
ALBERTA AND NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
GIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL B.C.,
WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA TODAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED
THIS MORNING NEAR THE AB-B.C. BORDER, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NW'RN AB, AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE PROVINCE BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN BEHIND
THE LOW, NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. STRONGER WINDS OVER EASTERN ALBERTA ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 70 KM/H LIKELY.
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST, WESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H
ARE EXPECTED FOR PINCHER CREEK AND CARDSTON REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LASTLY, POOR AIR QUALITY DEVELOPED IN THE EDMONTON AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THIS MORNING, BUT POOR AIR QUALITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ABLE TO TRAP POLLUTANTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE WORST IN THE EVENING UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION MOVES LATER
THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE POLLUTANT LEVELS IN THE
AREA.
SOUTHERN SK/MB...THE NWT LOW WILL PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
ALBERTA ELBOW REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONTS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TRACK FROM ALBERTA INTO
SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES.
IN THE SOUTH, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO COMPACTION
AND/OR MELTING AS NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR EVEN ABOVE-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE SNOW WANES. THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE
BATTTLEFORDS REGION TO SASKATOON, THEN DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
MOOSE JAW-REGINA-MOOSOMIN CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH INCLUDING THE
ASSINIBOIA AND ESTEVAN REGIONS. RISK WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT
AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN ALMOST ALL THE
AREAS THAT SEE FREEZING RAIN.
FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO EXCLUSIVELY
SNOW AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH 2 TO 4
CENTIMETRES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND 4 TO 8 CM POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MANITOBA.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A CONCERN IN MANITOBA'S RED RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THE PRAIRIE
LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WHICH ALIGN WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTATIONS, WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BY THE AFTERNOON, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WITH
THE SATURATION OF THE COLUMN AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY UNTIL THE
WINDS EASE IN THE EVENING.
IN THE NORTH, THE SNOW WILL BE PERSISTENT BUT LIGHTER AS IT DEVELOPS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR. ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY, BUT IN GENERAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 CM SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MANITOBA WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 CM
RANGE AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CHURCHILL, GILLAM, AND SHAMATTAWA AREAS.
KIVALLIQ...THE NWT LOW WILL SPREAD AN ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW INTO THE KIVALLIQ REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY,
SPREADING FROM BAKER LAKE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OTHER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN BAKER
LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN LATER IN THE DAY FOR THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SIT IN THE 4 TO 8 CM RANGE FOR MOST
AREAS AND THERE MAY BE BLOWING SNOW ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
LATER SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING AS MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE IN.
THE BIGGEST RISK FOR BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE FOR ARVIAT AND THEN
DECREASING RISK NORTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS RANKIN INLET.
BAFFIN ISLAND...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
END/VROLIJK/PIMISKERN
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