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FOCN45 CWWG 211300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST SATURDAY
FEBRUARY 21 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...COLD WARNINGS FOR NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA, PARTS OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, PARTS OF NORTHERN MANITOBA AND MANY PARTS OF
THE ARCTIC. BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE KITIKMEOT AND A COUPLE
COASTAL NT SITES.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...POLAR VORTEX IS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC.
UPPER LOWS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO; ANOTHER
OVER LABRADOR. THE LOW OVER ONTARIO HAS A WEAK UPPER HIGH JUST NORTH
OF IT, CREATING A BLOCKING PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
PACIFIC NW US ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1015 MB LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KIVALLIQ. THE REST
OF THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE: 1061 MB HIGH NEAR GREAT
BEAR LAKE AND 1036 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. LASTLY, A 1003 MB
LOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
DISCUSSION...
AB...CLOUD MOVED INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA LAST NIGHT BUT SOME SITES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ARE BELOW -30C THIS MORNING. LUCKILY
WITHOUT WIND. THIS CLOUD SHOULD CLEAR IN THE FAR NE TONIGHT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR -40.
SK/MB...A NEW WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA, BRINGING MORE SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
MANY AREAS IN NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SEE A FURTHER 2 TO 4 CM BY THE
END OF SATURDAY, BUT THE HEAVIEST BAND, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO RUN
FROM ISLAND LAKE TO THOMPSON, COULD PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 CM.
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLUMP INTO THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES WHILE
THE INVERTED TROUGH MAINTAINS AN INTRUSION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS A RESULT, SPORADIC WIND CHILLS BELOW -40 REMAIN
THIS MORNING UNDER THE ARCTIC RIDGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK, EXPECT THE ABATEMENT OF
SEVERE WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY, THEN REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT. EXPECT COLD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AS THE NT HIGH MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
ARCTIC...COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MANY SITES IN THE ARCTIC.
THE NORTHERN BAFFIN LOW IS GIVING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
EASTERN KITIKMEOT AND INCREASING CLOUD AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
KIVALLIQ, MELVILLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A 24 TO 36 HOUR REPRIEVE TO THE COLD WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS
BUT ANOTHER, MORE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL SWING SOUTHWARD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON THE WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO THE COLD WARNING LEVEL
WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILLS WITH THIS NEXT SURGE OF FRIGID AIR MAY VERY
WELL REACH INTO THE MID MINUS 60'S. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITES IN BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
IN THE NWT, COLD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SITES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER
TODAY AT ULUKHAKTOK AND DEVELOP AT PAULATUK TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO
EXCEED 90 KM/H THERE TONIGHT BUT THE SETUP DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE EVENT THIS PAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC AND
NORTHERN MANITOBA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE BITTER COLD WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED OVER MANY ARCTIC AREAS WELL INTO THE WEEK.
END/CARLSEN/KOKOLSKY/ROMBOUGH
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