053
FOCN45 CWWG 222000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST SUNDAY
FEBRUARY 22 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...COLD WARNINGS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN, AS WELL AS PARTS OF NU. BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE
EASTERN KITIKMEOT AND THE MELVILLE PENINSULA, AS WELL AS PAULATUK.
WIND WARNING FOR PAULATUK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, THE POLAR VORTEX SITS OVER BAFFIN
ISLAND WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SOUTH INTO NW ONTARIO. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE WEST, AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH A WEAKER LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES,
CONNECTING IT TO THE POLAR VORTEX.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1058 MB HIGH SITS OVER NORTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN
WITH RIDGING IN ALL DIRECTIONS: SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER, EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MANITOBA, ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC, NORTH, NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, AND
WEST ALONG THE 60TH PARALLEL AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN YUKON. A 978 MB
LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A. 1001 MB LOW SITS
OVER BAFFIN BAY. ARCTIC AIR HAS FLOODED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION
WITH ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SKIRTING THE EDGES OF THE PRAIRIES AND
ARCTIC REGION.
DISCUSSION...
PRAIRIES...COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS OF -40 TO -45 OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES. THESE WILL EASE
DURING THE DAY, BUT RETURN IN MANY PLACES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EASE ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY MORNING A LOW IS FORECAST TO SIT SOUTHEAST OF CALGARY.
THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE FORECAST HIGHS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE CITY OF CALGARY COULD BE +7C OR -5C DEPENDING
IF THE LOW IS NORTH ENOUGH FOR THEM TO GET THE WESTERLY WINDS.
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 70 KM/H.
AS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES UPPER TROUGH SLUMPS SOUTH INTO THE
PRAIRIES, IT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF SNOW
THAT WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PRAIRIES. 2 TO 5 MM OF QPF IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA; SLR VALUES WILL VARY, BUT COULD REACH INTO THE 15:1
TO 20:1 RANGE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 10 CM OF SNOW ACROSS THIS
BROAD SWATH. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA,
SPREAD INTO SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA ON
MONDAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS, IT WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES AND DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW THAT SKIMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PRAIRIES, BRINGING A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LARGELY FALL
AS SNOW, TRACKING ALONG THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING FROM A COUPLE
CENTIMETRES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 CM IN PARTS
OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NU...COLD WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MANY SITES IN THE
ARCTIC WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. A FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO ONGOING COLD WARNINGS DUE TO DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE KIVALLIQ, THE COLD WARNINGS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND ARE UNLIKELY TO RETURN IN THE SHORT-TERM.
NT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND SEVERE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H AT
PAULATUK WILL END BY THIS EVENING.
END/CARLSEN/ROMBOUGH/VROLIJK/VAN LOCHEM
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