626
FOCN45 CWWG 131247 CCA
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT FRIDAY MARCH
13 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...YELLOW COLD WARNINGS FOR SOME COMMUNITIES IN
NUNAVUT, NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, AND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW-PRESSURE COMPLEX DOMINATES THE EASTERN ARCTIC,
WITH CENTRES NEAR REPULSE BAY AND ARCTIC BAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SPANS FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA,
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHERE A SECOND UPPER LOW SITS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW, WHILE A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTRED OVER THE YUKON, WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES, THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA, INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. A 990 MB LOW IS POSITIONED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A 1022
MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A 992 MB LOW OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND.
DISCUSSION...
ALBERTA/NRN SK...FOG SET IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT NORTH AND
EAST OF CALGARY AND THERE WAS CONCERNS THAT IN A BROAD EASTERLY FLOW
THIS FOG WOULD SPREAD AND PERSIST WELL INTO MORNING, BUT DESPITE A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND LOW OVER COLORADO, THE SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN
VARIABLE, AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES HAS
MADE FOG IN THE AREA PATCHY AT BEST. A FOG ADVISORY WHICH WAS ISSUED
FOR THE REGION IS THUS CANCELLED, THOUGH A COUPLE PATCHES REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF DRUMHELLER AND BROOKS.
THERE'S WAS NO SIGN LAST NIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THAT THE
RDPS, AND RDPS ALONE, WAS INDICATING FOR PINCHER CREEK. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.
NONETHELESS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING INTO BC, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM MONTANA INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE NORTHWARDS EXTENT AND TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION VARIES MODEL TO
MODEL, WITH THE RDPS MOST AGRESSIVE PUSHING SNOW NORTHWARDS AND THE
FOREIGN GUIDANCE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT LESS. THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS HEDGES TOWARDS THE FOREIGN GUIDANCE, CONSIDERING IT'S
GOOD PERFORMANCE TONIGHT AND THE TENDENCY FOR CANADIAN GUIDANCE TO
DEVELOP THESE SYSTEMS TOO FAR NORTH.
ABOUT 6 TO 13 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
FROM LETHBRIDGE TO WATERTON PARK, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY FOR THE LATTER LOCATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS
ONE MOVES NORTHWARDS, WITH ABOUT 4 CENTIMETRES FORECAST FOR CALGARY.
THERE'S STILL NOT MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE REGION, BUT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LOCAL
BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NEAR THE US BORDER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ALSO
VARIES MODEL TO MODEL, IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
OVER THE NORTH, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CONSIDERABLY MORE
CLOUD BREAKS THAN EXPECTED HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IN A SEVERAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE FAR
NORTH, NECESSITATING COLD WARNINGS FOR A FEW OF THEM. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT, SO THESE COLD
WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED LATER TODAY, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST YET.
SOUTHERN SK/MB...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS NOW DELIVERING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN US, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
NUNAVUT...THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS NOW
MOVED OFF TOWARD SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND, BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
STILL LINGERS OVER KIVALLIQ. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHT BLOWING SNOW, AND WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
MINUS 55 IN SOME COMMUNITIES, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF COLD
WARNINGS.
THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND WILL DRIFT TOWARD
SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET, THOUGH A FEW COMMUNITIES ARE
EXPERIENCING VERY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 50 OR COLDER.
NWT...NIL SIG WX.
END/KOKOLSKY/BATE
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