405
FOCN45 CWWG 201200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT MONDAY JULY
20 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN NWT AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MANITOBA.
OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL MB WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLAND NUNAVUT TO
FOXE BASIN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS NORTHWARD
POKING INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. DOUBLE BARREL LOW COMPLEX WITH LOWS
OVER LABRADOR AND UNGAVA BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH BAFFIN ISLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OFF ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF BC EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON AND NWT.
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LIES OFF THE COAST OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A 995 MB LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA.
A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO,
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAKENING LOWS LIE IN A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO FOXE BASIN. AN INTENSE LOW LIES
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE YUKON WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BC.
DISCUSSION...
AB...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS ALBERTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS IS STILL IN
QUESTION, BUT IT COULD REACH THE CALGARY AREA TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY
WARNINGS WILL BE EXPANDED AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSITS THE PROVINCE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
SK/MB...A MORE SEASONAL AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PRAIRIES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE HEAT WARNINGS FOR THE TIME BEING.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. WITH THE BULK OF THE HUMIDITY FLUSHED OUT,
GENERALLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, A ROGUE
SEVERE WIND GUST/HAIL STONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE 500 TO 1000 MLCAPE
AND 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG A HANG BACK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA
LOW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A GREY
THREAT AREA AT PRESENT TIME.
WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN NORTHERN MB AND SK, REDUCING AIR
QUALITY DOWNWIND OF THE FIRES. AIR QUALITY WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TODAY. HOW MUCH SURFACES TO REDUCE
AQHI VALUES IS TO BE SEEN. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE AQ WARNING ISSUANCE.
NT/NU...AS THE LABRADOR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN, SOUTHEASTERN BAFFIN
ISLAND WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT QPF IN ANY TOWN SITES.
WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE NT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE AND POOR AIR
QUALITY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TERRITORY.
END/STAMMERS/STANFEL
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