098
FOCN45 CWWG 081900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SATURDAY
AUGUST 8 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR NORMAN WELLS AND PARTS OF
WESTERN ALBERTA.
OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGE VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. IT HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH IT, INCLUDING ONE NEAR CHURCHILL, ONE MOVING WEST PAST
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND, ONE TRACK EAST ACROSS NW ONTARIO, AND ANOTHER
OVER JAMES BAY. WEST OF THIS, A WEAK RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN SITS OVER
WESTERN CANADA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A COMPACT UPPER
LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM
IDAHO/MONTANA TO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE NORTH, AN UPPER LOW
SITS ALONG THE COAST OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER
WHILE EAST OF THIS A BROAD UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO AND GREENLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, A 998 MB LOW SITS OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED WAVE TO ITS EAST WITH AN APEX OVER THE UNGAVA PENINSULA THAT
HAS A WARM FRONT DRAPED EASTWARDS ACROSS AND A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN QUEBEC COAST THROUGH ONTARIO BEFORE
CURLING WEST ACROSS THE AMERICAN MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF
THE UNITED STATES. IN THE NORTH, A 1010 MB LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF
INUVIK, NWT WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO ALASKA AND A WARM FRONT
THAT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALBERTA, INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN PARKS AS SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM BC WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS HOWEVER, IS HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE SMOKE
WILL TRACK. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY TODAY,
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE WESTERN
MOST REGIONS, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SMOKE DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALERTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IS AIR QUALITY
BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT RISK.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE BC COAST, WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ALBERTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION, A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ALBERTA FOOTHILLS WILL
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FOOTHILLS, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO CONTINUE THOUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT IS ABLE TO CARRY THE STORMS FURTHER
THE EAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS HOWEVER SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA, A WARM THERMAL RIDGE
AND SMOKE MAY WORK IN TANDEM TO KEEP CONDITIONS CAPPED TO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOST STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AROUND/TO THE
NORTH OF CALGARY AND EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE PEACE RIVER REGION.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF MANITOBA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AGAIN
TODAY. WITH ALMOST NO CAPE AND CLOUDIER SKIES, LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH.
SBCAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1,000 J/KG RANGE WITH 50
KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
DAMAGING HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS WILDFIRE SMOKE THROUGH THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE. AIR QUALITY SHOULD BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED, ALTHOUGH
POOR AIR QUALITY IN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN EITHER LATER SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS WILDFIRE
SMOKE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA BEGINS TO SURFACE IN THE AREA.
NT....SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG THE
TERRAIN AND INTO NORMAN WELLS AND GOOD HOPE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AIR QUALITY WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE NT, PRIMARILY AROUND AND IN
THE NORMAN WELLS AREA WHERE AIR QUALITY HAS BEEN POOR AT TIMES DUE TO
FOREST FIRES SOUTH OF THE COMMUNITY. SMOKE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
NEIGHBOURING COMMUNITIES AS THE WINDS SHIFT, MOVING THE SMOKE AROUND
WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.
NU...TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FIRST IS TACKING SOUTH ALONG THE
KIVALLIQ COAST TODAY AND WILL BRING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 MM OF RAINFALL
BY THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEHIND THAT,
A NEW WAVE OF RAIN WILL PUSH FROM THE UNGAVA PENINSULA TO SOUTHAMPTON
ISLAND BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THEN WRAP BACK INTO THE KIVALLIQ ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING 5 TO 10 MM OF RAIN TO CORAL HARBOUR BY SUNDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE KIVALLIQ OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
MODERATE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 KM/H WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX TODAY, THEN BEGIN
TO EASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. IN HUDSON STRAIT AND
INTO THE KINNGAIT REGION, THE WINDS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN MOVING IN AND BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
80 KM/H ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEING PUMPED OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF HUDSON BAY HAS RESULTED IN BROAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE REGION. FOG PATCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL COMMUNITIES INTO THE WEEKEND.
END/VROLIJK/VAN LOCHEM
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