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FOCN45 CWWG 301200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
SEPTEMBER 30 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...STORM SURGE WARNINGS FOR HERSCHEL ISLAND AND
TUKTOYAKTUK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THERE IS A BROAD COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS
OVER STRADDLING THE 60TH PARALLEL, WITH A PAIR OVER NORTHERN SK AND
NORTHERN MB, AND ANOTHER OVER THE KIVALLIQ REGION.THERE IS RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES LEADING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
AT THE SURFACE, 994MB LOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEEPENING 987MB
LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA RIDGING IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...IN A TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM A LOW TO THE EAST,
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER FAR NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN TODAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THEN FLURRIES.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONG IN THIS REGARD HERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE ALBERTA
ON THE LAST NIGHT OF OUR FROST ADVISORY PROGRAM. HIGH CLOUD FROM THE
JET STREAM AND A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVE A HINDERANCE TO FROST OVER THE
SOUTH HOWEVER.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME LATE SEASON THUNDERSHOWERSS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL EXIT THE REGION OVER HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER
NORTHERN MB WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, COOLER AIR WILL BE
USHERED SOUTHWARDS INTO THE PRAIRIES AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SK GRAIN BELT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH 70 TO 80 KM/H GUSTS POSSIBLE.
NWT...A WEAK LOW IS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KM/H AT
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING TO TUKTOYAUKTUK, WHICH WILL BE EITHER
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR STAGE 2 FLOODING AND VERIFY THE STORM
SURGE WARNING, OR TO FALL TECHNICALLY SHORT BY 1 OR 2 CM. HERSCHEL
ISLAND IS MORE LIKELY SEEING STAGE 2 FLOODING THIS MORNING ACCORDING
TO GUIDANCE. WATERS WILL RECEDE IN BOTH LOCATIONS LATER THIS MORNING
AND WINDS SHOULDN'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS AFTER.
NUNAVUT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNINGIN A CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CHESTERFIELD INLET TO SOUTHERN
BAFFIN ISLAND WITH RAIN MIXED WITH WET SNOW WITH PATCHY FOG AT NEARLY
ALL COASTAL SITES. THIS LOW WILL FILL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN TURN, JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER LOW.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SUB WARNING,
AND AS SUCH, NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
END/CARLSEN/BATE
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