923
FOCN45 CWWG 301900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
SEPTEMBER 30 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...NONE AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THERE IS A BROAD COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS
OVER STRADDLING THE 60TH PARALLEL, WITH A PAIR OVER NORTHERN SK AND
NORTHERN MB, AND ANOTHER OVER THE KIVALLIQ REGION.THERE IS RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES LEADING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
AT THE SURFACE, 994MB LOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEEPENING 987MB
LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA RIDGING IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...IN A TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM A LOW TO THE EAST,
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TODAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THEN FLURRIES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STRONG IN THIS REGARD HERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALBERTA
ON THE LAST NIGHT OF OUR FROST ADVISORY PROGRAM. HIGH CLOUD FROM THE
JET STREAM AND A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVE A HINDRANCE TO FROST OVER THE
SOUTH HOWEVER.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME LATE SEASON THUNDERSHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
EXITED THE REGION OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER
NORTHERN MB WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, COOLER AIR WILL BE
USHERED SOUTHWARDS INTO THE PRAIRIES AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SK GRAIN BELT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH 70 TO 80 KM/H GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER SRN SK AND PARTS OF SW MB.
NWT...FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE INTERIM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
NOW. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MACKENZIE DELTA.
NUNAVUT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN A CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CHESTERFIELD INLET TO SOUTHERN
BAFFIN ISLAND WITH RAIN MIXED WITH WET SNOW WITH PATCHY FOG AT NEARLY
ALL COASTAL SITES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN TURN.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SUB WARNING, AND AS SUCH,
NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP AT GRISE FIORD BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS OF 90 KM/H ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS OFTEN HIGH WITH THESE TYPES OF WIND REGIMES.
END/CARLSEN/KOKOLSKY/BATE/VAN LOCHEM
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