659
FOCN45 CWWG 011200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT THURSDAY
OCTOBER 1 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...NONE AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THERE IS A COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A NOTABLE LOW OVER
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND, AND ANOTHER OVER MANSEL ISLAND. BROAD TROUGHING
FROM THAT COMPLEX EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY, AND SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS A COMPACT VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
AT THE SURFACE, 1004 MB LOW ALONG OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND A
DEEPENING 978 MB LOW OVER THE OTTAWA ISLANDS. RIDGING IS OVER THE
CANADIAN EAST COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ALBERTA TODAY AND
CLEAR RAIN SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAY
ALLOW FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MANITOBA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PRAIRIES, USHERING IN COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MANY OBSERVATION SITES RECORDED NEAR OR BELOW 0C TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WITH SEASONAL WEATHER TRULY SETTING IN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROF, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW AND JET
DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PRAIRIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NWT...HIGH PRESURE WILL DEPART TODAY AND TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERRITORY TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
IN THE HAY RIVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE MACKENZIE RIVER AND GREAT
SLAVE LAKE REGIONS TONIGHT. IN THE DELTA, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
MODEST ACCUMLUATIONS OF SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, NO MORE THAN 2
TO 4 CM PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. SLRS HAVE BEEN DROPPED BELOW 10:1 FOR THE
FIRST PART PERIOD WHEN SNOW DEVELOPS.
A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS SOMEWHAT AT HERSCHEL ISLAND FRIDAY BUT DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A STORM SURGE WARNING.
NUNAVUT...THE 978 MB LOW NEAR THE OTTAWA ISLANDS CONTINUE NORTH
TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX ROTATING ABOUT EACH OTHER AND A LEE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER LABRADOR BAY, THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BROADEN OUT
TROFING FROM THE LOW ALONG HUDSON STRAIT BACK TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON
ISLAND. THE COMMUNITIE IN THE KIVALLIQ AND SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND
WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING AT UP TO 24 HOURS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH
FLURRIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FEATURES UNDER THIS UPPER LOW
COMPLEX. GUSTY EASTLY-SOUTHEASTLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN BAFFIN AND THE MELVILLE PENINSULA TODAY NORTH OF THE LOW,
IMPROVING AS THE LOW FLATTENS OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE GRADIENT WILL
PICK UP FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE KIVALLIQ THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL THAT SAID, ALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
WIND MEASUREMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
FOG AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MANY COASTAL SITES AS
IT IS FALL IN THE ARCTIC.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP AT GRISE FIORD BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOWS THIS
STRONG HAVE CAUSED GUSTS OF 90 KM/H OR MORE IN THE HAMLET BEFORE BUT
WE DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION.
ANALOGUES SUGGEST USUALLY ONE WOULD WANT A STRONGER INVERSION, MORE
OFTEN PRESENT IN WINTER, TO ENHANCE WINDS ENOUGH AT THE TOWNSITE.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GUSTS OF 80 KM/H HAVE BEEN INDICATED FOR THIS
PERIOD. WEBCAMS SUGGEST THE SNOW IN THE REGION IS COMPACT AND NOT
LIKELY TO BLOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG IN RESOLUTE, IN THE 40G60
KM/H RANGE. WITH 4 CM OF LOOSE DRY SNOW ON THE GROUND A THOUGHT WAS
GIVEN TO ADDING BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES TO THE FORECAST, BUT SIMILAR
SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY CAUSED DRIFTING SNOW AT THE SITE YESTERDAY AND A
FORECAST HIGH OF MINUS 1 MAY ALLOW FOR THE SNOWPACK TO BECOME A BIT
WETTER BEFORE WINDS KICK IN.
END/CARLSEN/BATE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page