718
FOCN45 CWWG 021200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT FRIDAY OCTOBER
2 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...STORM SURGE WARNING FOR HERSCHEL ISLAND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA COAST LINE, WITH WEAK TROUGHING SOUTH TO A VORTEX JUST OFF OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER BC AND UP INTO NWT. THERE IS A COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC; WITH A NOTABLE LOW OVER THE KIVALLIQ COAST AND
ANOTHER OVER HUDSON STRAIT. BROAD TROUGHING FROM THAT COMPLEX EXTENDS
SOUTH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW OVER ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER YUKON AND
MACKENZIE MOUNTAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTRE SITS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTRE IS OVER THE NUNAVIK/HUDSON
STRAIT COAST WITH TROUGHING SOUTH OVER QUEBEC.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAIN PARKS AND FOOTHILLS, AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY. OTHERWISE, NIL SIG WX.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN
PRAIRIES THIS MORNING. AS THE FLOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE VORTEX
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE LOW OVER THE ALASKAN COAST WILL PHASE
TOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT IN A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE
REFLECTION TROUGH BISECTING MANITOBA WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF OVER ONTARIO AND
FORMING A MORE FOCUSED SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY MORNING.
NWT...A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ALASKAN COASTLINE WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA, MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR TODAY, ROUGHLY 2 TO 5 CM
PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. SLRS HAVE BEEN DROPPED BELOW 10:1 FOR THE FIRST
PART PERIOD WHEN SNOW DEVELOPS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS AT HERSCHEL ISLAND TODAY.
NUNAVUT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER HUDSON STRAIT. SHOWERS MIXED WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND TO THE KIVALLIQ COAST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE KIVALLIQ, CREATING GUSTS OF 70 TO
80 KM/H WHICH WILL LAST UNTIL FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG IN RESOLUTE, IN THE 40G60
KM/H RANGE. WITH 4 CM OF LOOSE DRY SNOW ON THE GROUND A THOUGHT WAS
GIVEN TO ADDING BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES TO THE FORECAST, BUT SIMILAR
SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY CAUSED DRIFTING SNOW AT THE SITE RECENTLY.
END/CARLSEN/VAN LOCHEM
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