927
FOCN45 CWWG 201200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT TUESDAY
OCTOBER 20 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR FORT MCPHERSON, AKLAVIK AND
INUVIK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE US
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE PRAIRIES. AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER BAFFIN BAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND AN
UPPER RIDGE LIES OFFSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC AND STRECTHES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN INTO THE YUKON.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIES AND NOW LIES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. A WEAKENING
1005 MB LOW IS SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE BAY. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER WEST
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND A 998 MB LOW IS OVER BAFFIN BAY. A 1030 MB HIGH
IS BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN BC INTO SOUTHERN AB AND AN INTENSE LOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...A GENERALLY PLEASANT FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN
ALBERTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO AS HIGH AS
THE LOW TWENTIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH RAIN,
SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEING USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK TROUGH/LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES ON TUESDAY
GIVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH PERHAPS A FEW CM OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO EXTREME NORTHERN MANITOBA.
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PRAIRIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOW TRACK REMAINING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE PRAIRIES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVING RAIN, SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN ARCTIC...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE YUKON TODAY WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MACKENZIE DELTA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ROUGHLY 10-25 CM
IS EXPECTED FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF TUKTOYAKTUK, AND SNOWFALL WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED VERY STRONG WINDS FOR
AKLAVIK, AND THERE WAS CONCERN ABOUT A PROLONGED BLIZZARD FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN
THE COMMUNITY, ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY WITH GUSTS OF 60 KM/H ON WEDNESDAY.
EASTERN ARCTIC...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH FLURRIES FOR MOST SITES.
THE ONLY NOTABLE SYSTEM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BAFFIN BAY
WHICH CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY CLYDE RIVER. GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 70-80
KM/H ALONG WITH A FEW CM OF FRESH SNOW CONTINUES TO GIVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY
MILD IN THE MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS, FULL ON BLIZZARD CONDTIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL BARRIER JET SETUP THAT IS
CONDUCIVE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS AND SNOW MATERIALIZING
AT THE COMMUNITY WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE COMPACT LOW'S TRACK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND NWP FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT THE COMMUNITY BUT FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE
SUB-WARNING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COMMUNITY AND WEAKENS.
AS THE BAFFIN BAY LOW SLIDES PAST QIKIQTARJUAQ, THE COMMUNITY WILL
RECEIVE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
END/STAMMERS/GRIFFITH
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