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FOCN45 CWWG 201900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT TUESDAY
OCTOBER 20 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR FORT MCPHERSON, AKLAVIK AND
INUVIK. STORM SURGE WARNING FOR TUKTOYAKTUK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER BAFFIN BAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AND AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OFFSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC AND STRECTHES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIES AND NOW LIES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. A WEAKENING
1006 MB LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF CAMBRIDGE BAY. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A 998 MB LOW IS OVER BAFFIN BAY. A 1030 MB HIGH
IS BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN BC INTO SOUTHERN AB AND AN INTENSE LOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...A GENERALLY PLEASANT FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN
ALBERTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO AS HIGH AS THE LOW
TWENTIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH RAIN,
SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEING USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES TODAY
GIVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH PERHAPS A FEW CM OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO EXTREME NORTHERN MANITOBA.
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PRAIRIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOW TRACK REMAINING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE PRAIRIES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVING RAIN, SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
NWT/KITIKMEOT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE YUKON TODAY WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MACKENZIE DELTA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ROUGHLY 10-25 CM
IS EXPECTED FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF TUKTOYAKTUK, AND SNOWFALL WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED VERY STRONG WINDS FOR
AKLAVIK, AND THERE WAS CONCERN ABOUT A PROLONGED BLIZZARD FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE
COMMUNITY, ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY WITH GUSTS OF 60 KM/H ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MAINLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES
ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW. WITH OPEN WATER UPSTREAM SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT VISIBILITY COULD STILL BE POOR IN
THE SNOW ITSELF. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STORM SURGE
EVENT FOR TUKTOYAKTUK AROUND THE NOON HOUR WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED AT HIGH TIDE.
STRONG EAST WINDS OFF THE LAND ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN ULUKHAKTOK AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. WITH LITTLE PRE-EXISTING SNOW, ANY BLOWING SNOW WOULD
HAVE TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH FALLING SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COMMUNITY, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAT STRONG WINDS WOULD OVERLAP WITH FALLING SNOW ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE KITIKMEOT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SNOW, BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THOSE COMMUNITIES AS WELL.
EASTERN ARCTIC...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH FLURRIES FOR MOST SITES.
THE ONLY NOTABLE SYSTEM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BAFFIN BAY
WHICH CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY CLYDE RIVER. GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 70-80
KM/H ALONG WITH A FEW CM OF FRESH SNOW CONTINUES TO GIVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW, BUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRAVERSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE BAFFIN BAY LOW SLIDES PAST QIKIQTARJUAQ, THE COMMUNITY WILL
RECEIVE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 CM OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
END/CARLSEN/STAUNTON
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