861
FOCN45 CWWG 211900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
OCTOBER 21 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR FORT MCPHERSON, AKLAVIK AND
INUVIK. STORM SURGE WARNING FOR TUKTOYAKTUK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH
A TROUGH SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE LOCATED
WITHIN THE TROUGH, ONE OVER THE AMUNDSEN GULF AND THE OTHER IS
LOCATED OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST.
UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE PRAIRIES AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR COATS ISLAND WITH TROUGHING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH JAMES BAY AND THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.
AT THE SURFACE, A 982 MB LOW IS NEAR GREAT BEAR LAKE WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO
SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ. A 1005 MB WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER
EASTERN HUDSON BAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER BAFFIN ISLAND.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PRAIRIES, WITH ABOVE SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES. MOST REGIONS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BRING A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WEATHER, WITH RAIN, SNOW,
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PRAIRIES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, A CHANGE IS COMING AS A A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE PRAIRIES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN ARCTIC...THE LOW NEAR FORT GOOD HOPE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROUGHLY
6 CM OF SNOW ACCUMULATED OVERNIGHT IN INUVIK, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO
10 CM EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE MACKENZIE DELTA TODAY, WHERE
SNOWFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. WIND GUSTS NO GREATER THAN
50 KM/H ARE EXPECTED AND SO, BLOWING SNOW REMAINS MINIMAL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON, ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STORM SURGE EVENT IN TUKTOYAKTUK AROUND
THE NOON HOUR TODAY, WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE.
OTHER ARCTIC COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WILL EXPERIENCE SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND LIKELY SOME BLOWING SNOW AT
TIMES. WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H IN FOR FORECAST FOR SOME
COMMUNITIES, NEAR BLIZZARD OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND
WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SITES INCLUDING RESOLUTE AND
GRISE FIORD ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING, RESPECTIVELY.
EASTERN ARCTIC..THE LOW NEAR GREAT BEAR LAKE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
PUSHING SNOW, GUSTY WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND MELVILLE PENINSULA AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH KIVALLIQ ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TREK EASTWARD, SNOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NO NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD, WHICH REDUCES THE CONCERN
REGARDING VISIBILITY REDUCTION IMPACTS WITH BLOWING SNOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN FALLING SNOW, BUT
MESSAGING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
END/CARLSEN/GREENHOUGH
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