463
FXUS65 KABQ 151144 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD CREATE ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8,000 FEET. RAIN ON SNOW
AND PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE MINOR
RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A COLDER WINTER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM APPEARS LESS LIKELY, BUT
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL CREATE
MINOR DISRUPTIONS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
WINDS INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM, CREATING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN NM. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL,
BUT MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A COLDER WINTER STORM COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS MID-NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TREND STRONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE AZ BORDER WHERE 700MB WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40KT, BUT WINDS AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN NM, IT WILL
BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AROUND THE REGION. A BREEZE WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS, PREVENTING STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS
FROM DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NM, EVEN THOUGH THAT
MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED BACK EAST ON SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN BREAKING APART ON SATURDAY. THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, WHILE THE OTHER PIECE
CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN AZ. A LONG SW/NE 150KT JET STREAK WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, BUT IT WON'T EXACTLY TRANSLATE TO VERY
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY IN
AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SUBLIMATE SOME OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHICH WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF EARLY NEXT WEEK'S WET STORM SYSTEM. MORE
ON THAT IN THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
A STREAM OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE AFORMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN AZ WILL PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AT THE ONSET SO TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN, INCREASING THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 7,500FT, BUT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION, BUT MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER
PLAYER HERE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED PARENT TROUGH). THE INFLUENCE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE, FOCUSING A BAND OF PERSISTENT
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES SOMEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL OR SOUTHEASTERN
NM. FURTHERMORE, THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SNOW DEPTH ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN
DURING THIS EVENT. THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE INCREASED RUNOFF WITHOUT ANY ISSUES, BUT CREEKS
AND STREAMS COULD BE RUNNING HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE COURSE OF ABOUT
24-HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL ADD UP OVER TIME. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE 0.75" TO 1.5" RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SINCE RAINFALL RATES
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE HEAVY, "FLASH FLOODING" ISN'T A HUGE
CONCERN. HOWEVER, VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS ROSWELL AND OTHER
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PAST FEW WEEKS
SUCH AS DEXTER AND PORTALES COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER AND RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE LOW WILL LIFT AND EXIT
TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEE CYCLOGENSIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BE USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLDER WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS TRENDED DOWN QUITE A BIT. THE PAST 4
RUNS OF THE EPS HAVE BROUGHT THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH
NORTHWARD WHILE THE GEFS MAINTAINS ITS STANCE ON A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO FOR NOW IS MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES/SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE JET STREAMS STAYS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO AND WE DON'T GET A
WINTER STORM AT ALL. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE REGION, PARTICULARLY
AT WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIDESPREAD
LLWS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AFTER SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER TODAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH 10-15% AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDLY VALUES WILL CREATE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN NM NEAR THE AZ BORDER. ERCS IN THE 30S
(AROUND THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY) SUGGEST THAT FUELS
ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING. THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY, CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LOCATIONS 8,000 FEET AND HIGHER
COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST. A COLDER WINTER STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
FAVORED LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 29 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 23 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 55 28 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 24 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 26 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 65 24 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 27 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 34 57 31 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 61 28 52 25 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 64 28 54 23 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 68 37 57 32 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 52 23 42 17 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 33 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 58 32 50 29 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 26 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 46 22 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 22 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 56 25 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 57 28 50 24 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 61 30 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 57 34 49 30 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 31 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 37 56 35 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 35 57 35 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 68 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 64 33 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 64 33 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 62 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 36 65 38 / 0 0 0 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 33 51 30 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 61 33 53 32 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 29 54 29 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 45 61 40 / 0 0 0 30
RUIDOSO......................... 63 44 56 37 / 0 0 0 40
CAPULIN......................... 52 30 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 25 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 24 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 31 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 59 37 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 34 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 71 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 72 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 74 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 76 42 76 48 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 75 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 72 46 66 40 / 0 0 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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