374
FXUS65 KABQ 160000 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
- WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8,500 FEET. RAIN ON SNOW
AND PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE MINOR
RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE CO BORDER AND IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK, TAKING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STORM SYSTEM, FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, POSSIBLY BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARMING TREND THAT WILL TAKE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
IT'S A WINDY DAY ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONGER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVERHEAD THIS PART OF THE STATE (700MB
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS) AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT GALLUP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF
SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO ARIZONA
SATURDAY MORNING, SOME INCREASING MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RETURN FLOW ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NM COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATUS HERE AS WELL AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN NM. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CA INLAND
EMPIRE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG 700 MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS SHIFT OVER
THIS PART OF THE STATE. CLOUD BASES LOWER AND THICKEN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD AND TOP DOWN MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE
NOW FULLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA,
MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW TAKES IT FROM NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA 12Z SUNDAY TO OVER SOUTHEAST NM BY 12Z MONDAY, THEN
RACING TO OVER KS/NE BY 00Z TUESDAY. SO, IT WILL BE A QUICK-
HITTER ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TAP MOISTURE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY GULF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WITH SOME
SOLID STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EAST AND
NORTHEAST TO THE TX BORDER. RAIN RATES WON'T FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING, SO LOW LEVEL OF CONCERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
START OFF HIGH WITH THIS WARM EVENT, GENERALLY AROUND 10KFT, THEN
LOWER TO AROUND 8KFT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST NM. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY FAVOR AN ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND POSSIBLY THE SACRAMENTOS,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE POPULATION CENTERS AND
MOST ROADS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR TURN OVER THE SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY MORNING, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO
NON-EXISTENT GIVEN THE LACK OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO CHILL THE
LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE ON TUESDAY ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN NM, WITH LIMITED
SNOW NEAR THE CO BORDER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND BRISK CONDITIONS TUESDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN AROUND MID WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH LATE WEEK, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT THE SURFACE IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. STANDING WAVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT, INDICATING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN SPEED
LATER THIS EVENING, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 2,000-5,000
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CREATE A GUSTY AND TURBULENT
INTERFACE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL SITES TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN NORTHWESTERN TO WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SOME LOW CUMULUS AND STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE BORDERLINE MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (MVFR) CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS FLIRTING BELOW 3,000 FT AT KGUP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AT
THE SURFACE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KT BEING COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OVER
THE CALIFORNIA INLAND EMPIRE. WETTING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING SPREADING AND EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM TRACKS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM AND THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST NM STRETCHING TO FAR NORTHEAST NM. PRECIPITATION ENDS
FOR ALL AREAS LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE STORM EXITS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A TRAILING COLDER
SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS AND BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 29 49 26 51 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 24 49 17 52 / 0 5 0 5
CUBA............................ 27 48 23 48 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 19 48 18 50 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 26 48 24 48 / 0 0 0 30
GRANTS.......................... 23 52 19 50 / 0 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 27 52 21 50 / 0 0 0 40
MAGDALENA....................... 35 57 31 48 / 0 0 10 60
DATIL........................... 29 52 26 48 / 0 0 5 60
RESERVE......................... 26 56 20 52 / 0 0 5 50
GLENWOOD........................ 34 60 32 55 / 0 0 5 40
CHAMA........................... 23 43 17 46 / 0 5 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 47 30 46 / 0 0 0 30
PECOS........................... 31 49 30 47 / 0 0 5 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 45 24 45 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 24 38 19 38 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 42 14 42 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 24 47 21 47 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 27 50 23 46 / 0 0 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 30 55 25 52 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 33 49 32 47 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 51 28 49 / 0 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 57 37 51 / 0 0 5 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 58 33 53 / 0 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 61 31 54 / 0 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 57 33 53 / 0 0 0 40
BELEN........................... 32 62 30 53 / 0 0 5 50
BERNALILLO...................... 33 57 30 53 / 0 0 0 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 61 27 54 / 0 0 5 40
CORRALES........................ 33 58 30 53 / 0 0 0 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 61 29 53 / 0 0 5 40
PLACITAS........................ 35 54 33 50 / 0 0 5 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 57 32 52 / 0 0 0 40
SOCORRO......................... 36 66 37 54 / 0 0 10 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 51 31 46 / 0 0 5 50
TIJERAS......................... 35 54 33 49 / 0 0 5 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 54 27 47 / 0 0 5 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 57 24 48 / 0 0 5 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 52 30 46 / 0 0 5 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 56 32 47 / 0 0 10 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 57 33 47 / 0 0 20 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 62 40 52 / 0 0 30 70
RUIDOSO......................... 43 56 38 48 / 0 0 40 70
CAPULIN......................... 30 49 26 46 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 26 55 23 49 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 25 55 24 49 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 51 27 46 / 0 0 0 40
CLAYTON......................... 36 58 36 53 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 35 55 32 49 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 38 67 39 57 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 65 39 54 / 0 0 5 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 41 67 39 57 / 0 0 5 30
CLOVIS.......................... 44 71 45 60 / 0 0 5 50
PORTALES........................ 45 73 46 61 / 0 0 5 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 68 43 58 / 0 0 5 50
ROSWELL......................... 41 76 48 63 / 0 0 10 70
PICACHO......................... 46 70 42 56 / 0 0 20 70
ELK............................. 47 68 38 55 / 0 0 20 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52
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