311
FXUS65 KABQ 161649 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
949 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 947 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
- WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8,500 FEET IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
NM. RAIN ON SNOW AND PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES COULD
PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE CO BORDER AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TO RATON PASS.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK, TAKING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SC MTNS THROUGH 00Z
TODAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AS THE 45-50KT JET AT H7 REMAINS
OVERHEAD. NPW ALREADY OUT.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY. COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
NEAR ONE INCH WILL FOCUS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM
INCLUDING ROSWELL TO CLOVIS. SNOW WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8,500'. DRIER
CONDITIONS FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARRIVING TUESDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL FAVOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS TAPER OFF WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS BEGINNING
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE DEATH VALLEY AREA OF CA/NV THIS MORNING. WITH
A WIDE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AND AZ, ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WHERE A STRAY PEAK WIND GUST OF 50+ MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIERRA
BLANCA AIRPORT IS ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 40MPH AT THIS EARLY
PREDAWN HOUR. OTHERWISE, MORE TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS OF 15-30MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MORNING SEES THE H5 LOW CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN TO 549DM OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, ADVECTING IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOCAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 0.50" AT ABQ AND TO 0.90"
AT ROSWELL. THE SUDDEN UPTICK IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH IT'S WARMER
SOURCE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODELED H7
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR 0C BUT NO LOWER DURING THIS TIME. WITH
THE CORE OF THE H5 LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF EL PASO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM. VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL FAVORING
0.50" TO 1.00" FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A REASONABLE HIGH AMOUNT OF 1.00"
TO 1.75" FOR ANY ONE SPOT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM WPC REMAINS, WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS, RISES ON AREA ARROYOS, WASHES
AND THE PECOS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE AREA WITH HIGHEST (>
50%) CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.00" FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUAY,
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. THIS WILL FAVOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING MOVE THROUGH. ALSO OF NOTE, MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO AVOID AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG I-25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON. THIS IS NOT TO SAY A RAIN ON
SNOW SCENARIO NO LONGER EXISTS, BUT THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING IMPACTS
IS NOTABLY LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FAVOR SHARPLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE QUESTION IS, WILL
SNOW LEVELS FALL FAST ENOUGH BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE ABQ METRO AREA MONDAY
MORNING, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT LIKELY TO STICK
MUCH. AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING. SIERRA BLANCA PEAK NEAR RUIDOSO LOOKS TO
BE THE BIG WINNER, RECEIVING THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC LIFT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL TO RECEIVE
PLENTY OF SNOWFALL. NEAR A FOOT IS FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREA OF RUIDOSO. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
TUESDAY STARTS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SKIRTING THE NM/CO BORDER. STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOW SUIT, WITH THE HIGHLANDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FAVORED TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
TO-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGHWAYS WILL BE PRESENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID
NUDGE THE WIND FORECAST TOWARD THE CONSMOS TO CAPTURE THIS STRONGER
WIND SPEED SCENARIO. THIS SYSTEM'S NORTHERLY ORIGINS PROMISES TO BE
COLDER THAN MONDAY'S SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, AND LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE RATON
PASS AREA TUESDAY. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS FALL
10F TO 17F BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NM, 40S IN
THE MID TO LOWER VALLEY AREAS OF CENTRAL NM, 50S IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND LOW 60S IN ROSWELL. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES SPREAD TO
THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THERE.
THE REST OF NEXT WORK WEEK SEES A LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
FAVORED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, COMMON GUSTS OF 15 TO 25KTS
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS FOCUSED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTS
AND KSRR. LLWS COMMON ALONG AND IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, LESSENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKUP AT THE
SURFACE. LOCALIZED MVFR NEAR KGUP THIS HOUR, CLEARING AFTER
SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTHWESTERLIES REACH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AGAIN TONIGHT. A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO SOUTHERN, CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY
OUT WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 48 16 53 16 / 0 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 48 22 50 24 / 0 0 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 48 18 50 16 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 48 23 48 21 / 0 0 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 19 51 20 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 52 20 51 20 / 0 0 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 57 31 49 30 / 0 5 50 60
DATIL........................... 52 25 48 25 / 0 0 40 50
RESERVE......................... 56 20 56 18 / 0 5 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 59 30 58 29 / 0 5 40 40
CHAMA........................... 43 17 48 17 / 0 0 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 30 46 31 / 0 0 20 40
PECOS........................... 50 30 48 32 / 0 0 50 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 24 45 25 / 0 0 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 38 19 40 21 / 0 0 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 13 43 19 / 0 0 20 40
TAOS............................ 48 20 48 23 / 0 0 10 30
MORA............................ 50 22 45 28 / 0 0 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 56 25 54 28 / 0 0 20 40
SANTA FE........................ 49 31 48 32 / 0 0 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 28 51 29 / 0 0 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 35 54 34 / 0 0 40 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 34 55 33 / 0 0 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 33 56 32 / 0 0 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 32 55 34 / 0 0 30 50
BELEN........................... 63 32 55 32 / 0 5 40 60
BERNALILLO...................... 58 30 56 32 / 0 0 30 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 32 56 30 / 0 0 30 50
CORRALES........................ 59 31 56 33 / 0 0 30 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 31 55 32 / 0 0 30 60
PLACITAS........................ 54 32 52 34 / 0 0 30 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 32 55 33 / 0 0 30 50
SOCORRO......................... 66 35 57 35 / 0 10 50 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 31 48 30 / 0 0 40 60
TIJERAS......................... 53 32 50 31 / 0 0 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 29 47 30 / 0 0 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 29 48 30 / 0 0 50 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 31 45 31 / 0 5 50 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 32 48 31 / 0 5 50 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 34 49 31 / 0 20 60 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 41 56 35 / 0 40 70 90
RUIDOSO......................... 56 36 51 32 / 0 40 70 90
CAPULIN......................... 49 25 45 31 / 0 0 5 50
RATON........................... 52 22 48 31 / 0 0 5 40
SPRINGER........................ 49 22 48 32 / 0 0 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 26 45 32 / 0 0 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 58 35 51 38 / 0 0 10 70
ROY............................. 54 31 48 36 / 0 0 20 60
CONCHAS......................... 66 39 57 41 / 0 5 20 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 40 53 40 / 0 5 40 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 40 57 41 / 0 5 30 80
CLOVIS.......................... 73 46 62 44 / 0 10 40 100
PORTALES........................ 74 46 64 44 / 0 10 40 100
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 44 61 42 / 0 5 40 90
ROSWELL......................... 78 48 66 46 / 0 5 60 90
PICACHO......................... 71 41 60 40 / 0 20 60 90
ELK............................. 69 38 58 35 / 0 20 60 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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