969
FXUS65 KABQ 162043
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
- WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8,500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRISK CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY,
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
RATON PASS ALONG THE CO BORDER.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE
PEAKING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. AROUND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA BLANCA PEAK. THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
COLDER SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM AND BRISK
WINDS EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW THAT'S CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NONETHELESS, THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND
BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
PERSISTING. PEAK GUST TODAY HAS BEEN 48KT/55MPH AT KSRR. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE. WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS
OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY MID DAY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD, TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL BY LATE EVENING, TO NEAR
THE SE CORNER OF NM BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD, INTO MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL, MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUCH MORE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PWATS JUMP TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN NM. FORTUNATELY, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY,
SO THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. NONETHELESS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NM WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS, AND PERHAPS
CAUSE PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES EITHER. WHILE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL, HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500-7000FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, CLOSER TO 8500-9000
FEET. SO WHILE AREAS LIKE RUIDOSO WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN, THE
PEAKS ABOVE AT SIERRA BLANCA COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES (4-8") OF
SNOW. SIMILARLY, OTHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY, MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL HAVE DIMINISHED,
BUT EASTERN NM PRECIP WILL BE CONTINUING. REMAINING SNOWPACK IN THE
RATON TO LAS VEGAS TO CLAYTON TRIANGLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK. THUS, CONCERNS ABOUT FLOODING DUE TO RAIN ON SNOW ARE
MINIMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
NM MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS NORTHEAST FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SKIES FULLY CLEAR OUT. WINDS LOOK TO ACHIEVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW PRONE ZONES (I.E. CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY) BASED ON THE MET, MAV, AND
ECX GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW MID NOVEMBER
AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. WINDS TAPER OFF MOSTLY AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS 700 MB FLOW BRIEFLY DECREASES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO 20 TO 30 KTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLDER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE STATE TUESDAY WITH 25 TO 40 KT
700 MB WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DROP TEMPERATURES AROUND
6 TO 12 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST NM NEAR THE CO BORDER.
WINDS QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AND THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KSRR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-15Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS, BEFORE
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY
WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE ON TAP SUNDAY
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WITH MODEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NM. ON
TUESDAY, A STORM SYSTEM WILL CLIP NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL BRING A
LITTLE PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE WILL JUST
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS, AGAIN
FAVORING EASTERN NM. LESS WIND, WARMER TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD POOR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 52 20 50 / 0 0 10 0
DULCE........................... 19 52 18 49 / 0 10 10 0
CUBA............................ 23 50 21 47 / 0 20 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 49 14 52 / 0 10 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 46 19 47 / 0 30 30 0
GRANTS.......................... 18 49 19 52 / 0 30 30 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 49 21 50 / 0 40 30 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 47 30 50 / 5 60 70 0
DATIL........................... 26 47 25 48 / 0 70 60 0
RESERVE......................... 21 53 19 59 / 0 40 40 0
GLENWOOD........................ 30 56 27 59 / 0 50 40 0
CHAMA........................... 19 46 18 44 / 0 10 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 45 30 47 / 0 40 40 0
PECOS........................... 29 47 29 47 / 0 60 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 44 24 45 / 0 20 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 18 39 15 37 / 0 30 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 43 10 40 / 0 40 40 10
TAOS............................ 19 47 21 47 / 0 20 30 0
MORA............................ 24 46 27 47 / 0 40 60 10
ESPANOLA........................ 28 52 30 55 / 0 20 40 0
SANTA FE........................ 31 46 30 47 / 0 50 50 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 48 28 50 / 0 50 50 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 50 33 54 / 0 60 60 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 51 32 56 / 5 60 60 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 52 30 59 / 0 50 50 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 51 33 57 / 0 50 50 0
BELEN........................... 31 53 33 59 / 5 70 70 0
BERNALILLO...................... 31 52 33 57 / 0 50 50 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 29 52 30 57 / 5 60 60 0
CORRALES........................ 31 52 32 57 / 0 50 50 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 52 31 58 / 5 60 60 0
PLACITAS........................ 33 49 32 52 / 0 60 60 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 51 35 57 / 0 50 50 0
SOCORRO......................... 37 52 35 61 / 10 60 80 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 45 30 47 / 0 60 70 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 48 32 50 / 0 70 70 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 46 32 48 / 0 70 60 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 25 47 27 49 / 5 70 60 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 45 28 46 / 5 70 70 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 47 32 48 / 10 80 80 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 45 31 50 / 20 70 90 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 54 37 52 / 50 70 80 5
RUIDOSO......................... 37 50 32 45 / 50 70 90 5
CAPULIN......................... 26 43 28 50 / 0 10 50 20
RATON........................... 24 48 26 57 / 0 10 40 10
SPRINGER........................ 22 46 28 56 / 0 10 40 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 45 27 50 / 0 40 60 10
CLAYTON......................... 34 51 36 57 / 10 10 70 40
ROY............................. 32 47 34 56 / 5 30 70 20
CONCHAS......................... 41 58 40 63 / 10 20 80 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 55 39 56 / 10 30 80 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 58 40 61 / 5 20 80 40
CLOVIS.......................... 45 62 41 60 / 10 40 90 50
PORTALES........................ 44 61 41 61 / 10 50 90 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 61 41 60 / 10 40 90 20
ROSWELL......................... 46 63 44 65 / 5 50 90 20
PICACHO......................... 42 58 41 57 / 10 60 90 10
ELK............................. 40 56 37 56 / 20 60 90 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page