321
FXUS65 KABQ 170933
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
233 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 229 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
- WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8,500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT
IN SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- A COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRISK CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY,
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TO THE RATON PASS ALONG THE CO BORDER.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF SUNDAY. AROUND 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO PRONE AREAS.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE PEAKS OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS NM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND
A COLDER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY, WITH TUESDAY NIGHT SEEING WIDESPREAD
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND WITH GRADUALLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 550DM H5 LOW OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING, SPINNING UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER CHIHUAHUA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TREND HIGHER FROM LAST NIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDING
THAT HAD JUST 0.19" OF PWAT. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS
REACHING PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR RUIDOSO, WITH
SNOW EVIDENT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS CLOSER TOWARD SIERRA BLANCA PEAK.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS, SANDIA/MANZANO'S AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS INTO
THE ABQ METRO AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE H5 LOW WILL OVERRIDE DEEP
LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH WESTERN TX.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN RESOLVING AN AREA
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPING.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CURRY AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES IN TX THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. BUT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM. THE
CENTER OF THE H5 LOW QUICKLY TURNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROWAL FEATURE
BRINGING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CONTINUING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN NM SOUTH OF I-40 LINGERING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OPTED TO
FOREGO A FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM AS BOTH THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY EAST IN TX AND THE SECONDARY
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COULD EASILY UNDERPERFORM. NEVERTHELESS, STILL
FORECASTING 1.00" TO 1.25" ON AVERAGE OVER PLACES LIKE CURRY AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES OVER A 24-HR PERIOD, AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN
POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
CONCERNING SNOW, THE WARM SOURCE REGION FOR ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR HIGHER SNOW LEVELS STAYING 8,500' TO 7,500'. ANY
NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY RUIDOSO. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS, OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL, BUT AGAIN
THESE AMOUNTS OF ISOLATED TO THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND MUCH OF
THE ZONE IS STILL UNDER THE 5" CRITERIA. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN ON MONDAY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OCCURS AND THE 700MB WINDS WEAKEN A TOUCH.
EVEN WITH THAT, WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WESTERN
GUADALUPE COUNTY AND NORTH-CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 15-18KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 700MB WINDS RAMP UP
AGAIN AS A SHORTWAVE RUNS JUST NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER, THUS
DRIVING UP WINDS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THOUGH FORECAST
VALUES OF SUSTAINED 20-25KTS KEEP THOSE ZONES OUT OF ADVISORY
CONCERN.
THE SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF OUR AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-40, WHERE HIGHS SLIDE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY. IN
ADDITION, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION AND BRINGS IN A
COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. WIDESPREAD TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS WILL COVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
EASTERN AREAS BEING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS ANY ADEQUATE AREAS OF MOISTURE
WITHIN IT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER, SHOULD
THIS SHORTWAVE TRY TO DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NM OR BECOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION BEING
POSSIBLE. ONLY ABOUT 35% OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS TREND TOWARDS
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SHORTWAVE THOUGH, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AREAS.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH, HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS RIDGE
STICKING IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY ON
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL COME IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPANDING TO MUCH MORE OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR (MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH
CEILINGS OF 3,000 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY OF 5 MILES OR LESS) WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER WITH AREAS OF IFR (INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES)
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
COOLER AND WETTER TODAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NM WILL SEE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1.00" TO 1.25" BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT LATE MONDAY, REPLACED BY
COLDER AND WINDIER NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THAT CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RESULT, ENDING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY FLAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARMER, DRIER AND
CALMER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 25 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 16 45 17 / 10 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 24 45 21 / 30 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 16 49 16 / 5 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 21 44 20 / 30 30 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 47 19 49 19 / 30 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 20 48 19 / 40 30 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 30 48 25 / 70 80 0 0
DATIL........................... 46 25 45 22 / 60 70 0 0
RESERVE......................... 51 18 55 17 / 40 30 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 29 55 27 / 40 40 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 17 40 15 / 10 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 30 46 26 / 20 50 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 33 45 25 / 50 70 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 25 42 20 / 10 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 22 35 16 / 10 30 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 21 38 13 / 20 40 5 0
TAOS............................ 46 23 45 18 / 10 30 0 0
MORA............................ 45 30 43 21 / 30 60 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 51 31 52 22 / 20 40 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 32 45 25 / 40 60 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 31 49 24 / 40 60 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 35 51 30 / 60 80 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 36 54 29 / 50 70 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 35 56 28 / 50 70 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 36 55 29 / 40 60 0 0
BELEN........................... 52 36 57 23 / 70 80 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 35 54 28 / 40 70 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 35 56 23 / 60 80 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 35 55 28 / 40 60 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 35 57 24 / 60 80 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 34 50 29 / 50 70 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 35 54 29 / 40 60 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 37 58 29 / 80 90 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 32 45 25 / 60 80 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 47 33 48 27 / 70 80 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 33 47 23 / 70 80 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 34 48 21 / 70 80 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 32 44 24 / 60 80 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 33 47 25 / 80 90 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 32 47 26 / 80 90 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 35 51 30 / 70 90 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 32 45 31 / 70 90 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 32 47 22 / 10 60 20 0
RATON........................... 46 32 53 21 / 10 40 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 32 53 22 / 10 50 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 34 49 24 / 40 60 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 37 55 29 / 10 70 50 0
ROY............................. 46 34 53 27 / 30 70 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 40 61 30 / 30 90 30 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 39 55 32 / 40 90 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 39 61 32 / 20 90 40 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 42 59 34 / 50 100 50 0
PORTALES........................ 63 42 59 33 / 50 100 50 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 42 58 33 / 30 90 30 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 46 63 35 / 60 100 20 0
PICACHO......................... 59 39 54 32 / 70 90 10 0
ELK............................. 56 34 52 32 / 70 90 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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