323
FXUS65 KABQ 182003
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
- A COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRISK WINDS ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN
ITS WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S SYSTEM DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TODAY. A
COLDER SYSTEM CLIPS THE STATE TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
BRISK WINDS TO MOST OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING AT CLINES CORNERS WHERE
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 55-65MPH FOR THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AS A RESULT, WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO DANGEROUS
CROSSWINDS ACROSS ON US285. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, BUT REMAIN BRISK OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE NEXT JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY, BRINING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
BACK TO THE PEAKS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES/HIGHLANDS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FOR TUESDAY AS A
RESULT, WITH SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS. THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND POSSIBLY THE SANDIA/MANZANOS, BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE
THE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION. OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT WILL BE ON
THE UPTREND OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, WHERE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PEAKS
AND HIGHER WEST-FACING SLOPES. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT, COMBINED WITH
WINDS TRENDING DOWN AND SKIES CLEARING WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS
BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE EXITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN
RESPONSE TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS LOOK TO POTENTIALLY INCREASE FURTHER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
HIGHER 700 MB FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN SOME OROGRAPHICAL SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
LITTLE CLOSER TO LATE NOVEMBER AVERAGES AFTER PEAKING SATURDAY DUE
TO LOWERING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 922 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NM AND MAY COME CLOSE TO MVFR AT
KGUP. OTHERWISE, STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM DUE TO A FEW WETTING EVENTS INCLUDING ONE SUNDAY INTO THIS
MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL HIT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE RACES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. COLD AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY, WITH
RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARMING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL
TAKE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. VENT
RATES WILL TREND DOWN DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD
AND BE MOSTLY POOR. THE WESTERLIES WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEANING IMPROVING
VENTILATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 43 13 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 41 8 49 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 39 11 47 / 0 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 18 45 6 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 43 11 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 20 46 6 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 45 14 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 28 48 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 24 45 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 17 54 16 62 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 58 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 15 35 7 44 / 10 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 42 21 47 / 5 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 26 43 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 37 12 44 / 5 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 28 8 38 / 5 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 14 32 -2 42 / 0 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 19 40 7 46 / 5 5 0 0
MORA............................ 22 40 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 25 48 17 51 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 26 44 19 47 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 47 15 48 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 48 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 50 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 27 52 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 50 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 27 54 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 51 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 53 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 29 51 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 53 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 47 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 50 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 57 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 42 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 45 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 45 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 47 14 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 42 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 46 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 48 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 52 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 30 50 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 22 40 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 45 12 50 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 47 11 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 45 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 29 47 22 53 / 0 5 0 0
ROY............................. 27 48 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 31 57 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 33 58 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 58 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 59 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 34 57 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 35 64 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 33 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 32 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ221-226-233-
237>240.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ223.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ223.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11
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