969
FXUS65 KABQ 190850
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
150 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET.
- WIDESPREAD TEENS TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MILES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES THEN BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE
COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
A RATHER SUBTLE AND WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE JEMEZ MTS THIS HOUR. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THRU THE PREDAWN AND VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS
THIS TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, THE MAIN INFLUENCER FOR WEATHER
TODAY LAYS OVER UT DEFINED BY A STRONG 100-110KT H3 JETMAX THAT WAS
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z RENO UPPER AIR SOUNDING. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY CROSS CO BRINGING SNOW TO THE CO ROCKIES AND A WINDBAG
TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT THE FAR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NM ALONG THE CO BORDER, BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS STRETCHING
DOWN TO THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS CAUSING HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON
HIGHWAYS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TRANSLATING 50-60KT WINDS TO JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS, AND OUT TOWARD LAS VEGAS AND WESTERN GUADALUPE
COUNTY. HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO THESE ZONES
ALONGSIDE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PEAK GUSTS REACHING 45-55MPH AT
GROUND LEVEL LOOK LIKELY IN THESE AREAS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE A
STRAY ERRATIC HIGH WIND GUST COULD HIT ISOLATED POCKETS WITHIN THE
ADVISED AREA. COLDER AIR FILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SUPPRESSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE 40S FOR
MANY AREAS. 50S WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS DECOUPLE AND TAPER OFF PAST 5PM MST AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY EXITS TOWARD THE EAST. A POOL OF VERY DRY AIR HIGHLIGHTED BY
NEGATIVE TD'S GETS SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING FROM THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERHAPS THE SEASON'S COLDEST
NIGHT THUS FAR. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST STRATEGY FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD RAW NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS MATCHING THE
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP BETTER. LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE-DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WITHIN 3F TO 5F OF RECORD LOWS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY REBOUND FROM THE MORNING CHILL, WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS FALL 1F TO 4F RELATIVE TO TUESDAY'S FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
TRANQUIL AUTUMNAL WEATHER SPREADS OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. FORECAST
HEIGHTS OF THIS RIDGE OVER ABQ SETTLE AROUND 584-585DM, WHICH IS
NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS HIGH, WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (WIDESPREAD 5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS ALMOST 15F ABOVE) EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING EVEN INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS, NO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN JEOPARDY AS OF NOW.
SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH OUR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEEKEND, A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE, IS FORECAST TO DRIVE
INTO WESTERN CONUS SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE SYSTEM, FINE TIMING DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS
DECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL TIMEFRAME OF THIS
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. ONCE IT DOES, IT
WILL COLLAPSE OUR HEFTY RIDGE AND BEGIN TO DEPOSIT MORE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER US. WITH THAT, SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND MORE SO INTO SUNDAY. GEFS
MEMBERS ARE MORE BULLISH ON A WINDY SUNDAY THAN OTHER ENSEMBLES,
BUT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING IS FAVORING A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
NM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD INCREASE 700MB
WINDS AND BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO HIGH TERRAIN AND
WIND PRONE AREAS. OVERALL, ANOTHER WINDY PATTERN APPEARS FAVORED
LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ON A PRECIPITATION FRONT, A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WOULD BRING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FAVORING THIS TROUGHING PATTERN
ARE BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST AREAS. PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS BROAD TROUGH
WOULD BE THE LIKELY SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AIDING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD THE TROUGH BE WEAKER, OR A
SLIGHT RIDGE REPLACE IT, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE CUT OFF FROM
NORTHERN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING ONLY HAS
ABOUT 25% CHANCE OF THIS SETUP OCCURRING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR (VISUAL FLIGHT RULES) CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE ONLY NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME HIGH ELEVATION FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
DAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES. THE MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS WILL ARRIVE VIA STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH COULD
PRODUCE NIGHTTIME RIDGE TOP GUSTS, MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, AND
SOME GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS (25 TO 40 KT) THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND (EAST SOUTHEAST) OF
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH, WITH FOCUSED PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CLINES CORNERS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
WINDS AND HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 30% WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS IN AREAS INCLUDING MORA,
SAN MIGUEL, HARDING, TORRANCE, SANTA FE, GUADALUPE AND QUAY
COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION BECOMES POOR
WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS LESSEN AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP
DURING THIS TIME. WESTERLIES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS ZONAL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 16 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 7 49 15 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 14 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 7 53 11 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 14 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 8 56 14 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 17 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 24 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 20 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 56 15 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 60 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 7 45 16 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 20 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 19 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 14 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 11 39 20 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 1 43 8 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 40 9 47 13 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 40 15 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 48 18 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 19 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 16 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 29 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 24 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 19 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 24 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 16 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 15 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 23 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 16 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 25 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 23 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 25 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 21 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 20 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 14 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 19 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 20 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 20 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 26 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 13 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 43 12 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 9 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 16 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 22 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 47 19 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 25 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 24 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 24 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 28 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 27 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 24 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 32 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 26 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 25 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ214-215-223-229-233.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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