599
FXUS65 KABQ 200914
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
214 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
- WIDESPREAD TEENS TO SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS APPROACHING RECORD ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM THIS MORNING, WITH LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
- WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND, AND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY COVER NORTHWEST NM BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING IN
NORTHWEST NM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TODAY, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK, BECOMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN TO NM ON SATURDAY AND MORE SO INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW MAY RETURN TO NORTHWEST NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND TD'S FALLING INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO HAVE ALLOWED FOR BITTER COLD LOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VALLEY
INVERSIONS ARE COMMON THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY BE A LAYER OF HAZE
TRAPPED IN THE INVERSION IN SOME VALLEY AREAS DUE TO OVERNIGHT
POLLUTION. THIS WILL BREAK WITH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING HOLDS TRUE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 8F TO 13F WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING'S READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING WITH CALM WINDS MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS PROMINENT OVER NM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL CLIMB AS LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO REIGN SUPREME. GENERALLY,
HIGHS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGH 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AND HIGH 60S ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY. ANY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL WORK TO WARM
SOME AREAS INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 70S. ON THE FLIPSIDE, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIVE COOLING
WILL WORK ITS MAGIC THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH VALLEYS BEING QUITE COLDER THAN THEIR
SURROUNDING AREAS.
A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PNW LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
MODELS AGREE ON THIS TROUGH FLATTENING OUR RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING BACK UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THAT,
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EAST CENTRAL AREAS AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND MORE SO INTO SUNDAY.
THE WINDS LOOK TO POSSIBLY MAXIMIZE MONDAY AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE SETTING A 50KT 700MB JET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF CENTRAL NM, THOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUNDAY OVERACHIEVE ON WIND SPEEDS, AS
A 40KT 700MB JET WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
OVERALL, A WINDY PATTERN IS LIKELY TO SET ITSELF UP LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT TRICKY WITH DIVERGING SOLUTIONS FROM THE
MODELS. TWO BROAD SCENARIOS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT PNW TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
CONUS: THE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PATTERN AND BRINGS IT OVER NM OR THE
TROUGH WEAKENS/KEEPS NORTH OF NM AND ZONAL FLOW/SLIGHT RIDGING
TAKES OVER. SHOULD A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN BE OBSERVED,
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER NORTHWEST NM IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BRING A FEW
DAYS OF FAIRLY CONSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST AREAS,
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE TUSAS
MOUNTAINS, WOULD LIKELY BRING ABOUT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW/RIDGING SCENARIO, ALMOST ALL PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE SHUT OFF FROM THE STATE, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING WIND,
THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW CREATING HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AFTER MONDAY, BUT
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS FAVORING THE TROUGHING PATTERN WITH
ABOUT 60% OF MEMBERS. FINE DETAILS ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
HAMMER DOWN THIS FAR OUT, ESPECIALLY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CHANCE OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. IN SHORT, RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN NORTHWEST NM IS FAVORABLE BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH, FAIR WEATHER
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS
THE RULE TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING LAY OVER THE REGION. WESTERLIES BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION BY SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 16 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 14 57 16 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 17 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 9 60 13 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 16 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 10 61 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 19 65 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 24 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 21 71 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 30 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 15 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 26 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 18 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 16 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 4 52 8 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 47 10 55 16 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 24 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 23 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 27 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 21 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 29 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 27 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 20 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 52 21 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 19 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 54 25 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 20 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 50 26 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 26 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 24 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 17 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 25 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 24 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 34 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 22 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 46 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 46 18 51 17 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 30 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 26 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 29 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 33 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 31 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 36 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 61 35 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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