510
FXUS65 KABQ 211110 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 351 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
- MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
- WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND, AND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY COVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NM THROUGHOUT SATURDAY,
ALLOWING CALM CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER
THROUGHOUT THE STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO NM ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK FOR NORTHWESTERN NM, INCLUDING CHANCES FOR SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER NM TODAY AND THE WARM UP WILL
BE IN FULL SWING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND UP TO
15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE EAST, EXCEPT WHERE SNOWPACK STILL
EXISTS. A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM, BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. RATHER, LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE WITH SOME CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY. OVERNIGHT, VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL SET UP, ALLOWING MID
SLOPE AREAS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN VALLEY LOCALES. THE
WARM-UP CONTINUES ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID
IN THE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PNW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. WITH THAT, ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO NM, PAVING THE WAY FOR WINDIER CONDITIONS
TO FORM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
700MB WINDS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NM BEGINNING SATURDAY AND MORE SO
INTO SUNDAY. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ALOFT AS THE PNW TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND PUSHES UP
AGAINST A 500MB HIGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. A CORRIDOR OF
45-50KT 700MB WINDS WILL LIKELY SITUATE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, WHERE A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO AID IN THE STRENGTH OF THESE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A
SECOND AREAS OF INCREASED 700MB WINDS WILL LIKELY SIT OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS, THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TICKS
SLOWER IN SPEED.
WHILE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS (LOW TO MID 60S IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, LOW TO MID 70S IN EASTERN AREAS).
SUNDAY'S TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH THE INCREASED WINDS AND
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRESSURE HEIGHTS, HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL LIKELY INCREASE HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO ENTRENCH THE STATE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NM ON MONDAY, WHICH
WILL FURTHER DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THOSE AREAS.
WITH INCREASED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE STATE WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
ALL AREAS AND DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPCOMING SETUP HAS BEEN SUBJECT TO FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY, WITH HIGH FOCUS ON HOW THE PNW TROUGH EJECTS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN TILT, LOCATION, AND/OR STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH CAN CHANGE WHERE/IF PRECIPITATION FALLS. OVER THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS, A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER
NM HAS LED TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OCCURRING OVER THOSE NORTHWEST AREAS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE HOVERING AROUND 8,500-9,000FT FOR
THESE AREAS, SO ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS THIS
TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT A SCENARIO OF A WEAKER TROUGH OR SLIGHT
RIDGING COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO BE SOLELY OROGRAPHIC AND
THEREFORE MINIMAL IN COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATE FROM EACH
OTHER. OVERALL, INCREASED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIRRUS WILL
SPREAD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT, EVEN WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL
START TO TREND UPWARD ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY CENTRAL
AND WESTERN LOCALES EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE ON SUNDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN, BUT RH VALUES WILL START TO
TREND UPWARD AS THE WESTERLY JET BRINGS PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. IN FACT, RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN STARTING MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 16 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 57 17 61 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 21 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 61 10 63 17 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 23 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 14 64 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 25 66 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 32 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 61 29 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 23 71 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 31 73 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 52 18 55 18 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 32 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 60 33 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 25 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 11 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 0 54 9 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 53 11 56 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 60 26 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 60 22 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 23 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 33 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 25 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 23 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 22 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 60 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 23 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 30 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 31 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 33 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 15 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 29 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 25 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 22 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 51 17 56 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 28 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 29 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 31 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 28 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 29 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 36 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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